Millions of unemployed workers are moving back home for the first time in years where they will celebrate New Year with family and friends. The government expects unemployment to rise. The new year uneasily begins on a note of uncertainty but with many still hoping to find a job near home and raise their children.

Beijing (AsiaNews/Agencies) – The Lunar New Year will be a sad one for Chen Xiaohong, 37, his wife (pictured) and their relatives, all laid off from the same DVD factory as a result of a major slump in sales, but they are alone. Tens of millions of migrant workers like them are going home much in advance of New Year celebrations, unsure whether they will come back to their old job or be able to find a new one after the festivities.

Chen’s village, Beiya, is in a mountain area, in Sichuan province. The landscape is dotted with small holdings where farmers grow rice, wheat and sweet potatoes.

But “besides farming, there's nothing,” Chen explained, adding that “if we don't go out to work, we can't make much money and we don't have any way to live.”

Even before he lost his job, he saw his income drop from 2,200 yuan (US$ 320) in October to 1,500 (US$ 220) in November.

On average migrant workers take home about 8,000 yuan a year; by contrast, farmers make around 4,800 yuan, said Zhang Jianping, an economist at the Minzu University of China.

Research from the People's Bank of China found that migrant workers, estimated at around 150 million people, contribute 65 per cent of their rural family's income.

In Yilong County, where Beiya is located, more than a quarter of its 1.08 million residents left the farm to work in cities, leaving behind the old and the young.

Registered unemployment rose to 4.2 percent as of 31 December, said Yin Chengji, spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security; that is 8.86 million people. The rate was 4 per cent in September. That is first jump since 2003 and is expected to increase further as China’s exports, essential for the country’s manufacturers, decline.

However, the official figure understates the problem because it doesn’t include all those who aren’t registered, including migrant workers. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the actual rate including migrant workers may be higher than 9.4 percent in 2009.

Crisis or no crisis, people in Yilong County are getting ready to usher in the New Year in style. Workers in the county seat strung red lanterns along the streets of the city.

Chen will spend time with his parents, his 15-year-old son and 12-year-old daughter. This is first time in six years ago.

Many returning migrants want to launch themselves in new activities, investing the money they saved working in the cities, so that “they can stay in their home village and take care of their parents and children,” said She Shucheng, director of the Yilong County Labour Development Office.

About 50 of them for example took part in a recent government-sponsored programme on rabbit farming.

Others are hoping to find jobs in the many government-funded projects to rebuild Sichuan after its devastating earthquake.

However the future remains uncertain and China’s leaders are deeply concerned about possible social unrest if unemployment goes even higher.

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said the government must do more to create jobs and preserve social stability.

• china
• beiya
• sichuan
• migrants
• unemployment
• lunar
• new
• year
• economic
• crisis
• exports
• farming