In recent weeks, clashes between Myanmar’s military and ethnic militias have intensified on the Thai border. Faced with renewed violence, Thailand has proposed a series of "informal" meetings to reboot the peace process. But representatives of the armed groups have not been invited, and the agenda is unclear. Divisions also remain within ASEAN over Myanmar’s junta.

 

Yangon (AsiaNews) – The ethnic militias that have been fighting Myanmar’s military junta since 2021 have seized several areas on the border with Thailand in recent weeks, raising concerns in Bangkok, which has announced a series of "informal" meetings in the next two days to resolve the diplomatic stalemate in its neighbour’s civil war.

Thailand is concerned about several issues, from the reduction in trade to the growing number of undocumented migrants crossing into its territory. It is also worried about the outposts of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Shan State along the 2,400-kilometre border between the two countries, claiming that at least nine are in Thai territory and wants them removed.

Unlike other ethnic militias, the UWSA has not formally joined the fight against the military junta and for decades has controlled its territory independently of the central government, managing local drug trafficking and maintaining relations with China.

Myanmar and Thai officials will discuss “border issues and matters related to cross-border crime,” a junta spokesman said. “We will discuss cooperating in order to enact border stability and fight criminal violations.” No date has been mentioned.

Last month, Thai officials, fearing the involvement of their armed forces in Myanmar’s civil war, asked UWSA fighters to withdraw from outposts in the forests between the two countries. UWSA officials rejected the request, reiterating that the Thai army "is not our enemy".

The Karen National Union (KNU) also pushed into several areas on the border with Thailand.

 

Yesterday it recaptured Manerplaw, the group's historic headquarters which had been under the control of Myanmar’s military since 1995.

Ignoring China's appeals for a truce, the Kachin Independence Army too resumed an offensive in Putao, a district in Shan State, in Myanmar’s far north.

Over the past year, China has tried to broker a ceasefire between the military and ethnic militias to protect its economic interests in the country, but has failed to convince the parties to reach a deal.

Thailand is now trying to take the reins of the diplomatic initiative without excluding other ASEAN[*] members, which, however, since the civil conflict broke out in 2021, have simply proposed a five-point peace plan that has never been respected or considered by the military junta.

For some observers, Thailand's proposal[†] is a show of "bamboo diplomacy,” capable of adapting to different situations.

The meetings proposed by Bangkok, which will be held tomorrow and Friday in Thailand and Laos (which this year chairs ASEAN), break with the practice of leaving it to the rotating presidency to propose peace initiatives.

For other analysts, the Thai government's move reflects the desire to reach out, again, to the military junta, as China and, to some extent, India have done so far, whose representatives will be present at the talks, together with diplomats from Bangladesh and, for Myanmar, the military regime's foreign minister, Than Swe.

The absence of representatives of the various armed ethnic groups or other international organisations like the UN has been strongly criticised, because what happens to the country once the conflict is over remains unclear; many fear that the ethnic militias will want to continue to run the territories they control, as they have been doing already in some regions.

Critics point to the lack of transparency in the issues that will be discussed since participants have not released any details.

Overall, ASEAN continues to be split over Myanmar. Many members refuse to admit the military-ruled country as most of its rulers are under Western sanctions, while an international arrest warrant has been sought against General Min Aung Hlaing.

At least 30,000 people have been reportedly killed so far in Myanmar’s civil war, while the number of internally displaced people is just shy of four million.

Last July the International Organisation for Migration reported 5.2 million migrants from Myanmar in Thailand alone, mostly who left to avoid conscription.

“The question is whether we want to sacrifice further ASEAN unity and diplomatic legitimacy to re-embrace a pariah state," noted a Bangkok-based Southeast Asian diplomat.

---

[*] Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

[†] Favoured by former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's ties with Myanmar’s junta, in particular with its chief, General Min Aung Hlaing.

• thailand
• myanmar
• asean
• civil war
• china
• refugees
• armed groups
• negotiations
• ethnic militias