Sino-Indian rivalry comes to the Arabian Sea
In Pakistan, China has funded and helped build the port of Gwadar on the Gulf of Oman, which will give it direct access to the Indian Ocean and the energy-rich Arabian Peninsula. China also wants to build a highway and railway link to Gwadar, but both are still held up by considerations over high costs and technical difficulties.
The Karakorum Highway would connect China’s Xinjiang and Gilgit-Baltistan region in Pakistan but it would have to go over high mountains. The highest point passes at 4,693 metres and is closed between December and April because of snow and bad weather. In some places, it is vulnerable to landslides so big lorries might not use it easily.
A 3,000-kilometer rail line could link Kashgar and Gwadar, but its cost would be enormous, up to million per kilometre in the highest mountains.
Then there are political obstacles. Baluchistan is one of Pakistan’s most unstable provinces because of local autonomist rebel movements. Insurgents have already kidnapped and killed Chinese engineers in Gwadar.
Still, the port of Gwadar is essential for China as a terminal for oil and gas shipments as well as an important listening post to monitor naval activities on the Indian Ocean and base Chinese naval ships and submarines.
For New Delhi, Gwadar is a threat because it is so close to the Strait of Hormuz and would allow Pakistan to exercise control over its energy routes.
Its response has been to build a US$ 8 billion naval base at Karwar, Karnataka, in western India, as well as help Iran develop the port of Chabahr, some 72 kilometres west of Gwadar.
India is also helping Iran with the Chabahar-Milak-Zaranj-Dilaram route from Iran to Afghanistan. The three countries have already agreed to preferential treatment and tax holidays for trade with India.
However, Afghanistan is unstable because of the Taliban insurgency, and construction at Chabahar is behind schedule. The port now has a capacity of only 2.5 million tonnes per year, whereas the target was 12 million.
Finally, India and the United States have moved closer. New Delhi must therefore address the fact that Washington favours isolating Tehran over its nuclear programme whilst Beijing is one of the latter’s great allies in the matter.
27/11/2021 12:55