Nation goes to the polls, for first free vote since its foundation
Islamabad (AsiaNews) – The elections which opened this morning are the first really free elections in the history of modern Pakistan. Over 80 million voters are called to vote their representatives to the National Assembly and 4 Provincial Assemblies, amidst rising tensions in the wake of Taliban threats against the polls.
Officially a Federal Republic (a public debate about whether it is “of Islamic inspiration” is ongoing) the nation has a long history of being ruled by military dictators (general Ayub Khan in the ‘60’s, general Zia ul Haq in the ‘80’s, and general Pervez Musharraf since 1999), all of whom have seriously undermined the principal of democracy, cornerstone of the Constitution as written by the Nation’s founding father, Ali Jinnah.
The last vote of some note dates back to 2002, but it only produced a paper executive completely subject to the then military government. Despite this on May 22 2004, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group re-admitted Pakistan into the organisation, formally recognising its progress in returning to democracy. The international community also came out in favour of a softer line, asking Musharraf to guarantee true democracy.
Direct elections are being held for the 577 general seats of the four provincial assemblies (Belucistan, North Western Province, Sindh and Punjab) as well as the Federal or National Assembly, the country’s real legislative organ: here 268 out of a total 272 seats are up for grabs. The 4 districts without a candidate are: Larkana, because of Pakistan Peoples’ Party Chairwoman Benazir Bhutto’s death December last, Lahore because of the death of PML-Q candidate Tariq Banday, and South Waziristan because of security concerns and Parachanar because of a bomb blast on February which left 37 people dead.
According to the last official census there are 132 million people in Pakistan; some raise that figure to at least 150 million. 95 % of the total population in Muslim and the minorities (Christian, Ahmadi Muslims considered heretics, Hindu and Zoroastrian) up until today had no political representations. In fact in recent months law was passed allowing “minorities of all types” to run for the National Assembly, which before was reserved to Muslim men.
Candidates for the Provincial Assembly are number 5,083, while those running for the National Assembly total 2,242: for the first time in the history of the state, 180 candidates are women (for the 60 reserved seats) and 9 are non Muslims (for the 10reserved seats).
There are three principals parties: Pakistan’s Peoples Party led by 19 year old Bilawal Bhutto after the tragic end of his mother; the Muslim League N led by ex Premier Nawaz Sharif, and the Muslim League Q, the presidential party.
Former Pakistani politician and current Harvard research professor Hassan Abbas, claims the elections will have the following outcome: over 50 % for Bhutto’s party, 30 % to Nawaz Sharif and no more than 10 % to Musharraf (the rest will be divided up among candidates in the tribal areas who have strong local support). “If the Presidents party takes more than 25 seats – maintains Abbas – it means that the vote was rigged”. In this case, protests will explode once again across the country, Pakistan People’s Party leaders have warned. If instead everything goes according to plan, the two opposition parties would have enough strength to form a coalition government, completely excluding all support for Musharraf.
The race for premier remains open: without exception all of the political parties have decided to unveil the name of their candidate prime minister only once the polls have closet, officially “to avoid security risks”. Despite this, there are very few high profile figures.
Asif Zardari, current PPP leader and widowed husband of Bhutto, has very little elector trust given his fame as a dissolute and corrupt man. Bilawal Bhutto, the “chosen heir” of his mother’s political career, is still considered a child far from having formed a true political identity.
An alternative would be former premier Nawaz Sharif, held in high esteem across the country but considered untrustworthy by the international community and analysts because of his views on Islamism. Despite this, Sharif is the only political figure of weight left in Pakistan who enjoys wide popularity, above all in the aftermath of his recent declarations in favour of press freedom, judicial autonomy and rule of law and after his display of sorrow in the wake of Bhutto’s death.
Moreover he is the only one capable of dialoguing with the Islamic extremists from the tribal areas as well as with the leaders of the Pakistani Military excluding Musharraf who he personally hates and with whom – contrary to Bhutto – he has never negotiated. This would make him most suitable to lead in the post-Musharraf era, as he is capable of guiding military resistance as well as the threat of Islamic war. Yet this would only come at a price, human rights and freedom of expression.
So far the situation across the country appears calm. After the terrible attack of February 16th the government has redoubled security measures around voting stations: over 81 thousand soldiers are currently patrolling 52 electoral districts, along with 47 thousand paramilitary soldiers. Polls close at 17 (local time), but the army will only withdraw its men in 2 days time, to guarantee a “correct and fair vote count”.
The people fear the economic repercussions of the elections. Under Musharraf’s semi-dictatorship, Islamabad registered a growth rate between 5 and 7 %. However thanks to the political instability and increase in terrorism in recent months this rate has dropped significantly, with the subsequent increase in inflation and rising unemployment.
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