Modi’s Ukraine balancing act between the G7 and Russia
What binds India and Russia is oil, which India is buying at discounted prices. Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but the latter did not show particular interest for the Summit on Peace in the Ukraine held in the Swiss city of Lucerne, sending a low-level delegation. At the same time, Indo-Russian relations are not likely to expand, experts believe.
New Delhi (AsiaNews) – India did not sign the final communiqué issued at the end of the Summit on Peace in the Ukraine held in Lucerne, Switzerland (15-16 June), joining a few other countries, including South Africa, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and Thailand.
Once again, New Delhi has shown that it does not want to give up its relationship with Moscow, despite pressure from Western powers. In fact, little was expected from the conference convened by Switzerland with the support of Ukraine since Russia was not invited, and China and Pakistan (its ally) declined the invitation.
India instead opted for a low-level diplomatic delegation (despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s urging) led by Pavan Kapoor, who was India’s ambassador in Moscow until a few months ago.
“Our participation in the summit and continued engagement with all stakeholders is with a view to understanding different perspectives, approaches and options to find a way forward for a sustainable resolution of the conflict, in our view, only those options acceptable to both parties can lead to abiding peace,” said Mr. Kapoor.
The final communiqué included a paragraph recognising the need for Russian participation. “We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties,” it reads.
The press release addressed three main issues: nuclear safety, food safety, and the release of civilian prisoners. But to take part in negotiations, Ukraine is demanding the liberation of all Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea, while Russia wants the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the regions it annexed: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Given the gap between the parties, talks are not expected anytime soon.
Earlier this month, after Narendra Modi's election victory, President Zelensky called the three-time prime minister to congratulate him, taking the opportunity to invite him to send a high-level delegation to the peace summit.
Modi replied on X (formerly twitter): “Happy to speak with President@ZelenskyyUa. I thank him for his warm wishes on the historic victory of the NDA Government in the general elections. We reaffirm our mutual desire to further strengthen the extensive partnership between India and Ukraine.”
A week later, the two leaders met at the G7 summit in Italy and exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine. “The PM conveyed that India continues to encourage peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy,” the Ministry of External Affairs said.
Yet, despite such statements, since the invasion on 24 February 2022, India has always avoided condemning Russia, from which it continues to buy cheap oil.
In April, Russian oil imports to India reached their highest level in nine months thanks to major discounts and after Indian refiners suspended operations for a while due to Washington's imposition of new sanctions on Russian shipping company Sovcomflot.
The war in Ukraine has allowed Moscow and New Delhi to forge economic relations that the two countries had failed to bolster during the Cold War.
This has not been without problems. Some experts note that while things are going well economically, at the diplomatic level, India has to manage a balancing act between Russia and the West, and between Russia and China, something hard to do, especially because of Russia’s growing dependence on China.
The “future of Russia-India relations remains uncertain,” a recent study by the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) argues.
Specifically, “India does not support Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and sticks to a neutral stance for pragmatic reasons. It is not willing to undermine the ties with Russia but remains hesitant about expanding cooperation.”
In fact, “An intent to embrace new areas of economic engagement is prevalent on the Russian side, but the current hurdles do not allow Russian businesses to significantly increase their presence on the Indian market.”
To put it succinctly, the Moscow-New Delhi relationship is stable, but increasingly stagnant.
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