Lebanon after Nasrallah, crushed by a war it did not want
Hezbollah's number two announces the fight will continue. The price is already high: over a thousand dead, incalculable devastation, and a humanitarian emergency; but in reception centres and in the streets, words of resentment against the slain secretary general are rare. France and the United States (which approved Israel’s ground operation) continue to talk about a diplomatic solution that seems still far away.
Beirut (AsiaNews) – “Know thyself.” This Socratic maxim, valid for every person aspiring to wisdom, is also valid for countries. It is by ignoring it that Lebanon’s Hezbollah finds itself today in turmoil, dragging Lebanon into it.
Having acted unilaterally and decided, without consulting the other components of the Lebanese nation, to engage Lebanon in a war of support for Hamas, in Gaza, on 8 October 2023, Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, ended up drawing a lightning response from Israel, in the form of a vast air attack against which its military assets, in particular its long-range rockets and threats of Iranian support, have not worked.
The Israeli response, which the whole world saw coming, cost him his life, as well as that of a dozen of the main military commanders of the Islamic resistance movement. It has devastated the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as all the regions where its supporters live, in Beirut, southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, causing hundreds of deaths and incalculable destruction, and pushing the population onto the roads.
Welcomed in improvised accommodation centres (public and private schools, church halls and municipal buildings), part of the population found itself on sidewalks, squares, and public gardens in Beirut. In this human environment, words of resentment against the secretary general of Hezbollah are very rare.
Even in its suffering, the population remains viscerally attached to him, not without gratitude for the precarious but humane welcome it has found in the regions spared by Israel’s fury.
The elimination of this charismatic figure has sent shockwaves across Lebanon as well as in the entire Arab and Islamic world. Its impact will certainly be felt for generations. Hassan Nasrallah’s body was recovered from the rubble, apparently in good condition, but we do not know yet the date of his burial, or if it will be public.
A three-day mourning period was announced in Lebanon when his death was confirmed by his party. The appointment of Nasrallah’s successor has not yet been decided, but observers expect Iran to have a say in it.
Torn between the desire to capitalise on the military and psychological victories of its air campaign, and the diplomatic efforts led by France and the United States for a diplomatic solution, the Israeli military command decided on Monday in favour of the first option.
Its commandos, with the consent of the United States, reportedly crossed Lebanon's land borders, through breaches in the concrete wall that Israel had built, on the outskirts of the villages of Rmeich, Aïta Chaab, Adeissé, and Kfar Kila, to destroy the infrastructure that Hezbollah was able to set up there, including tunnels and rocket bases. The Lebanese army, present in some garrisons, responded accordingly.
It is obviously too early to say whether this operation will be successful, or how a disorganised Hezbollah will respond, weakened by the blows it has received. At the time of writing, no direct clash between Hezbollah and Israeli commandos were reported.
Diplomatic channels
The diplomatic solution to the war between Hezbollah and Israel still has a chance. US President Joe Biden and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated on Monday that regardless of these incursions, they remain committed to a peaceful process.
While acknowledging Israel's "right to defend itself," the Defence Secretary Austin got assurance from his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Galant, that these incursions are indeed intended “to ensure that civilians can return safely to their homes on both sides of the border,” and are not a prelude to a lasting occupation.
As part of various diplomatic efforts, France’s Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, arrived in Lebanon Sunday evening for talks on a ceasefire in line with the Biden-Macron deal reached on the sidelines of the annual session of the UN General Assembly.
In Beirut, France’s top diplomat urged Israel to “give diplomacy a chance”, but Barrot, sources say, has no plans to visit Israel knowing the hostility he would receive there.
That said, Mr. Barrot did not shy away from criticising Hezbollah, saying: “I recall that the current situation is largely due to the decision of this movement (Hezbollah), which since October 2023 has dragged Lebanon into a situation we have always deplored.”
In this context, he noted that "the parameters of a lasting diplomatic settlement have been known for a long time" and that is “fully implementing Security Council Resolution 1701” providing for the withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani River.
Both Israel and Hezbollah rejected the diplomatic solution. "We continue in Nasrallah's footsteps," said a pained Naim Qassem, the party's number two, in a short televised address yesterday. The war "could be long", he acknowledged, and Hezbollah has the necessary strength “to deal with a ground invasion”.
This view killed any hope raised earlier by Prime Minister Nagib Mikati. After a meeting with Nabih Berry, the latter announced that the prospect for a ceasefire still existed, followed immediately by the deployment of the army to the border and a parliamentary session for the election of a new president.
In Bkerké, Jean-Noël Barrot met with the Maronite Patriarch, Beshara al-Rahi, who reiterated his attachment to the idea of Lebanon's "positive neutrality" towards regional and international alliances.
Mr Barrot came to Lebanon accompanied by a military plane carrying two mobile health posts to treat a thousand seriously wounded people, as well as ten tonnes of medical equipment and 10 million euros for humanitarian organisations.
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10/08/2021 16:30
