For Russia, there are no security problems in the two regions, already protected by Moscow. Experts: Georgia risks being sacrificed for the common economic interests of Moscow and Strasbourg, and the conference in Geneva could recognize the current state of affairs within a month.

Tblisi (AsiaNews) - European Union observers may not enter South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (in the photo) clarified yesterday. Controversy is growing over the agreement made on September 8 between Russia and the EU, which Strasbourg presented as a precise plan for the withdrawal of Russian troops, but which experts maintain is useful to Moscow for silencing international criticisms and buying time.

The agreement provides for the sending of 200 observers, and Strasbourg sees them as an advance party to monitor the situation before the sending of international peacekeeping forces. But the website of the Russian foreign ministry clarifies that "international monitors will be deployed exclusively in the zones adjacent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia to avert new aggression by Tbilisi", while "as far as measures to ensure security inside the two states are concerned, they have already been taken through the deployment of Russian troops under bilateral treaties Russia has with South Ossetia and Abkhazia".

The prestigious journal East Week, of the Oriental Studies Center, has immediately highlighted the great ambiguity in the agreement that, for example, provides for the withdrawal of Russian "peace forces" from five "checkpoints" between Poti and Senaki, in Georgian territory near the border with Abkhazia: this provision might not include other Russian forces, the ones deployed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This would mean a permanent Russian presence in these areas. In effect, it would mean acceptance of the status quo on the part of the EU, and Georgia's inability to exercise any sort of sovereignty over the two provinces. Georgia itself emerges even more severely weakened by this agreement, since the other powers have decided on the destiny of its territory. If EU personnel were to enter the territories, this would take place only by Russia's good graces. Instead, an EU summit on September 1 had made any new relations, including economic ones, conditional upon Russia's complete withdrawal of its soldiers from Georgia "to their positions prior to the explosion of the conflict".

Also in East Week, Marek Menkiszak observes that the Russian intervention could lead to international sanctions, while both Moscow and Strasbourg had been interested in establishing "normal" economic relations: Europe depends a great deal on Russian gas, while closer economic relations are to Moscow's advantage, permitting it to renegotiate its international alliances in the future (possibly with a new security agreement in Europe), after reaffirming its position of hegemony over former Soviet territories like Georgia. At the conference to discuss security in the region, scheduled for Geneva beginning October 15, if the current situation persists Tblisi will appear weak and unable to speak for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which it does not control. The two provinces, on the other hand, would be able to present themselves as legitimate subjects capable of speaking for themselves, perhaps under Russian protection, so as to assert their autonomy and independence, which would therefore receive de facto recognition from the international community.

It is significant that on September 9, the day following the agreement, Lavrov announced the institution of official diplomatic relations with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and agreements for the creation of Russian military bases. And that defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov has announced a stable presence of at least 7,600 soldiers.

• georgia
• russia
• south
• ossetia
• abkhazia
• war
• invasion
• european
• union
• economic
• sanctions