Independent candidates; a thorn in the Turkish government’s side
Ankara (AsiaNews) – Turkey’s election campaign has been marked by blood. Just five days before polls open, Tuncay Seyranlioglu, a well known businessman and independent candidate was assassinated in cold blood in Istanbul, while he was travelling in his car. An atrocious crime of political consequence, even if quickly dealt with in the national press as a revenge killing for Tucany’s selling off of his wedding reception centre to finance his campaign.
The candidacy of independents is a new move, the importance of which should not be underestimated, and one which seriously concerns the present regime.
In order to overcome the 10% barrier – the percentage imposed by the military following the 1980 coup to prevent leftist and Kurdish deputies getting into parliament- this year there is an overwhelming number of independents – 700, most of them from the left and Kurds.
Their names are on the same election list as those of party candidates, but there name will not be accompanied by party symbols or emblems that may distinguish them. Neither will they have a progressive number, complicating the process for voters who have difficulty reading and writing – as in the case of numerous Kurds who learned the Turkish language late in life. Despite this until yesterday this solution was greeted with enthusiasm, in the knowledge that this time votes will not be wasted as has been the case in the 2002 election and that at least thirty seats can be counted on to form an antidote group to nationalists, that may go a long way to reforming a left wing opposition that was wiped out in the aftermath of a series of military coups along with true democracy in the nation.
Another consequence of these coups has been the rising power of ethnic and religious parties, who filled the vacuum of the left wing in Turkey, a power which has resulted in groups such as the extremist MHP, the National Movement of the Grey Wolves. This group has exploited an atmosphere of fear and concern for the loss of a national Islamic identity which has manifested itself in the population, by attacking religious and ethnic minorities as well as the process for European integration. In doing so the group has succeeded in creating a new ‘enemy’ in the public imagination – the Christians and the Kurds – who have been pushed to the margins of society ever since they failed to reach the 10% minimum in the 2002 elections, resulting in no parliamentary representation. By focusing their election campaign on this xenophobic rhetoric it seems that the group has succeeded in gaining consensus among voters so much so that polls show they may reach as much as 20% in Sundays election, compared to the 1.8% gained in 2002.
Even the CHP, the republican party founded in 1923 by Ataturk, and current majority opposition party with 177 out of 550, is playing on the publics fears to attack and contrast the ruling AKP, thus it is being dragged towards the right exploiting the same warnings loudly amplified by the MHP. It is not by chance, in the paradox of politics, that many forecast a possible coalition between the two groups in a future Parliament.
So what will happen on July 22?
Despite the mobilization of the State, the judiciary, the army and the political spheres close to them such as the CHP, the latest polls suggest that peoples support is still behind the party of premier Erdogan, the AKP.
The Prime Minister knows he can count on the populations of the big city and suburbs, but also on the emerging class of small businessmen and tradesmen who have witnessed their interests and the economy improve under the current administration. Indeed it cannot be ignored that the nation’s economic development has flourished under the clever guidance of the Europhile Islamic Prime Minister. One party alone, therefore, is seen as being efficient and closet o the needs of the people and it is the AKP, in stark contrast to the CHP, considered increasingly nationalist and imbedded in conservative authoritarian positions.
What is certain is that the AKP will remain the first party of importance: it is the favourite to win a majority with polls suggesting between 40 and 50% of the vote, but if the July 22 ballot once again produces one parliament with two parties, the regime will remain blocked and in all probability a vote will be called to amend the constitution.
Even if other parties succeed in gaining more that 10%, as is predicted in the case of the MHP, the political scenario could change dramatically in the case of both the opposition and the government. If the DTP (Social Democrat Party) succeeds in getting 20-30 deputies into parliament as independent candidates then it may be able to form a coalition with the AKP pushing it to reform this thorny issue. The premier, who had until yesterday not ruled out this possibility, today said the exact opposite and even went as far as to declare that if he cannot rule alone he will retire from politics. A new strategy perhaps to draw in voters who do not approve of the Kurds?
Now will this new murder which overshadows the country succeed in increasing the fears and concerns of the people or will it be totally overlooked? What is certain is that it does not augur well for the democracy that so many declare they long for… at least in words…
.png)
11/06/2011
