Yesterday Arabs took to the streets to protest a government decision to transfer them to their lands of origin from the city where they had been brought under Saddam’s rule. The oil-rich city is desired by many and a referendum this year to decide its status is worrying countries from the US to Turkey. The risk of a new warfront there is also a threat to the Christian community.

Kirkuk (AsiaNews) – While the spotlight of international media and politics is focused on Baghdad, where most sectarian violence in Iraq takes place, Kirkuk appears to be hurtling towards what has already been described as its own “mini-crisis”. The Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) of the United Nations reported that nearly 500 mostly Shiite Arabs took to the streets of the city yesterday to protest a government decision to relocate them.

On 4 February, the Iraqi Higher Committee for the Normalisation of Kirkuk ruled that “Arabs who moved to the city from other parts of Iraq after 14 July 1968 (when the Ba'athist party of former president Saddam Hussein came to power) would be returned to their original towns where they will be given land.” The families, mostly Shiites from the south, will also be given ,000 each as compensation. “We will not leave Kirkuk by force or without force. If they [Kurds] try to force us out of the city, then there will be dangerous reactions against them," said Sheikh Raad al-Najafi, a local Shiite leader and follower of Muqtada al-Sadr.

“Arabization” under Saddam. Throughout the eighties and nineties, the Ba’ath party systematically chased out about 200,000 Kurds and Turkmens from Kirkuk’s urban and rural areas to swing the city’s ethnic balance in favour of Arabs and to ensure strategic control of its oil fields. After the fall of the regime of Saddam, thousands of Kurds returned, demanding the restitution of their land and assets and the right to vote in a referendum that will decide the status of the city this year. The Iraqi Constitution (article 140) promises to send away members of the Arab colonies, who will receive compensation, and to bring the Kurds back to Kirkuk. This is an explosive issue for many non Kurds. Ali Mehdi, a Turkmen member of the provincial council, said: “It will be disastrous. People will not accept dominion of Kurdish parties. A civil war could break out at any time.”

Today, the urban centre of northern Iraq has around one million residents including Arabs, Kurds, Armenians, Christians and Turkmen people. The city is not usually afflicted by sectarian clashes like those in Baghdad and its suburbs but observers point to the lines of ethnic division drawn across the city and the fact that it is developing on Iraq’s second oilfield and possesses 70% of the country’s natural gas deposits. They say these factors make for a time bomb and a possible clash could pit Kurds and Arabs against each other with neighbours like Iran and Turkey being dragged in. This would be to the detriment of Christians who have found in the north the only safe haven from the violence tormenting the rest of the country. There are plans – not without strong reservations – to set up a province for Christians in the outlying area of the Plain of Nineveh.

A referendum at risk. Everything hinges on a referendum that is set to decide the fate of Kirkuk at the end of the year: it will either go to the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan or join a Sunni province. An all out struggle is currently under way between Kurds on the one hand and Arabs and Turkmens on the other to gain control of the contested province. If it is Kurds who will administer the city after the popular consultation, they would have a vital resource sufficient to guarantee their possible independence from the rest of Iraq. This is a prospect that Turkey and Iran would vehemently oppose, fearful that it may stoke nationalist fervour among Kurdish peoples living within their borders.

Analysts say Kirkuk should have a special status of independence without alliance with any regional block. Kurdish leaders say they are not after ethnic supremacy or oil, which would provide them with an economic basis for future independence. Rather, they want to correct historic errors.

Several countries involved in the Iraq crisis shudder at the thought of the referendum. In early January, US Senator John McCain said he was in favour of postponing the ballot. The politician said the central government needed to be strengthened before the Kirkuk issue was decided. The Baker Commission suggested putting off the referendum for a year. But it is neighbouring countries that are the most concerned, those within Kurdish communities within their borders. Turkey, which recently hosted a conference on the status of Kirkuk, made it clear that it would not approve of a Kurdish solution and has been moving troops to the border. The government of Kurdistan was quick to respond, saying it would not tolerate outside interference or threats in the matter.

The deterioration of security and human rights. Meanwhile, local sources of AsiaNews speak of a campaign of intimidation against Turkmen and Christian families that have been forced to leave their homes due to pressure from unidentified groups. The operation gives rise to suspicion of an attempt to “manipulate” the referendum. Last month, the UN also denounced abuses of Arabs and Turkmens and warned of the hidden dangers behind the escalation of attacks and violence reported in the area since 2003.

If a new warfront opens in Kirkuk, Christians stand to lose. The plan of “closing off” the community in a well protected ghetto-region identified in the Plain of Nineveh is increasingly taking shape. The place is a stone’s throw away from the oil-rich city.

• iraq
• kirkuk
• war
• referendum
• oil
• federalism
• kurds