Despite the lack of recognition, the Taliban government is here to stay
The future of the Islamic Emirate will depend on the Taliban’s ability to pacify the country, says Prof Diego Abenante. However, anti-Taliban groups have few chances and any conflict would not benefit the population. The Islamic State group is still a major cause for concern. The only hope is that the less hard-line faction prevails over the radical Haqqani group.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Afghanistan’s history is repeating itself. Under the Taliban, women’s rights have been swept away, the Islamic Emirate does not enjoy any international recognition, the country is increasingly isolated on the international scene, about half of the population – 20 million people – is suffering from hunger, and international aid can be expected to bring very little relief.
Under the Doha agreement signed in February 2020 between the Trump administration and the Taliban, the United States agreed to withdraw from the country in exchange for the Taliban[*] pledge not to support Islamist terrorism in Afghanistan. Those “conditions were respected,” said Prof Diego Abenante speaking to AsiaNews.
The new Emirate’s fate will now depend on the Taliban’s ability to pacify the country. “As was the case for the first (Islamist) regime established in 1996, the Taliban’s comeback stems from the weariness of Afghan society towards very long wars. If they keep this promise – and so far, violence has been reduced in the country – their government can last over time,” said the scholar, who is associate professor at the Department of Political and Social Sciences of the University of Trieste[†].
“However, should they fail, a general uprising is within the realm of possibilities. Pockets of resistance appeared already in the days following their seizure of power, but have not become national movements, and are unlikely to become so in the near future,” Prof Abenante added.
Without means and support of the international community, any resistance cannot success. Above all, no one would benefit from another civil war.
At present, humanitarian aid groups say that they can reach previously inaccessible provinces; however, despite their claims, the Taliban are not only unable to govern but do not control the whole country. In fact, the Islamic State group, known in Afghanistan as the Islamic State-Khorasan[‡] Province (IS-K), continues to carry out attacks.
“This fact should not be surprising,” explained the expert. “For historical and geographical reasons, no government has ever ruled the entire Afghan territory. On the contrary, in other periods, (Afghan) society almost always exercised control over a weak state.” And “If in the past this factor played in favour of the Taliban, who always tried to undermine Kabul’s authority, now they are ones encountering this difficulty.”
Despite finding some common ground early on in 2014-2015, when the Islamic State began to take root in Afghanistan, the two Islamist movements eventually went their separate ways, “which over time acquired religious and political overtones. The Islamic State is profoundly anti-Sufi and anti-Shia, as evinced once again by its most recent attacks.
“Although they belong to the Deobandi religious movement, the Taliban do not want the division of society, because they cannot govern if it is divided. After their government experience in the 1990s, they realised they need a united country to rule.”
For Prof Abenante, there is another major factor. “While the Islamic State’s agenda is universalistic for it seeks to re-establish the Caliphate as the only possible option, the Taliban are pursuing a national agenda,” he noted.
“The former Qur’anic students have always been very consistent on this, and have never tried to spread the revolution outside the country’s borders. They do not want to make war against the West, so much so that they struck a deal with the United States.”
Yet, they now find themselves in a very ambiguous situation “like they did in 1994-1995 before the first Taliban government,” the University of Trieste scholar explained.
After the Taliban’s took Kabul again, “the United States had two options: washing their hands of Afghanistan and let the population suffer under the regime or intervene.”
“Attempts have been made to transfer funds to international humanitarian agencies on the clear understanding that the new government would not be considered legitimate unless it showed some openness on human rights and the status of women improved.”
It is clear that the Taliban are not prepared to do this since they banned girls from getting a secondary education, imposed the burqa and restricted women’s movements. “They are not interested in this because they think the West will send aid for the population anyway while they can pursue their Islamic agenda.”
Meanwhile, the United States is concerned that Afghanistan will end up under Chinese influence since China does not care about human rights.
“In March, Beijing sponsored meetings of the so-called ‘extended troika’ of various regional players, namely China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The invitation was also extended to the United States.” However, China’s primary interest is economic.
“Beijing and Moscow in no way want to see the Islamic resurgence expand. But most of all they do not want border clashes with Pakistan and Pakistani Taliban along the Durand Line endanger Chinese investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a huge infrastructural project of vital strategic interest since it will give China access the Arabian Sea.”
Ordinary Afghans have only one hope. “The Taliban are not a monolithic movement, as evinced by the time it takes to appoint ministers and the fact that the government is still provisional.
In fact, “If the less hard-line faction prevails over the more radical elements of the Haqqani network, there could be some overtures and cooperation with other countries." However, this option does seem to be far off yet.
[*] Taliban means “students”.
[†] Università degli Studi di Trieste, UniTS,
[‡] Khorasan province (Wilayat Khorasan) is a historical region that includes parts of Afghanistan.
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24/09/2021 15:51
