Beijing's positive and HSBC negative statistics
Beijing
(AsiaNews) - Two days ago the National Bureau of Statistics in China issued the
data of manufacturing output (SMEs) for March, showing a positive growth. On
the other hand, PMI calculated by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics shows a
reduction of the sector and a fall in exports.
Official
statistics claim that the PMI rose to 53.1, the highest value in a year. Instead,
HSBC put it at 48.3, down from February, at 49.6. A
PMI below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity, a higher level indicates
that the activity is expanding.
According
to analysts, the discrepancy in the figures is probably due to the fact that
the Bureau of Statistics is based on data from the large industries, the
negative instead relies also on data from small and medium enterprises in China
which are being choked by the lack of access
to credit.
Another
fact to consider is that the data of the National Office is based on figures
provided also by provincial governments which, for political reasons or career
ambitions, swell the numbers and investment. Some
large Chinese businessmen have told AsiaNews
that in recent months they were invited to declare the "intention" of
new investment in manufacturing, only to inflate the statistics.
In
fact, this year for the first time since 1989, China has scored the highest
deficit in the balance of payments and the index of Shanghai Stock Exchange
continues to decline. It
has lost 9% from its highest value reached Feb. 27. The
market for property and houses, which in past years had grown so huge, now
suffers from a decline in sales. The
prices of new apartments in 47 cities fell to 70 and the halt in construction has
reduced the production of cement and steel. In
2011, Maanshan Iron & Steel, one of the largest industries in the sector,
has seen its profits fall by 94%.
According
to HSBC, "the industrial production decreased mainly due to the reduction
of domestic and foreign demand. New orders are in fast decline through 2012 and
new exports fell for the second consecutive month."
Michael
Pettis, professor of government at Beijing University, also points to another
problem: "For the first time since the Asian crisis [of 1997], we are seeing
a flight of capital from China, since last October. The money is leaving the
system and there is a reduction in investments in small and medium enterprises.
" This,
in turn, leads to increased unemployment.
In
early March, Premier Wen Jiabao forecast a growth of 7.5%, the lowest since
1990, and promised to boost domestic demand. Vice-Premier
Li Keqiang has promised the same. Speaking
today at the Boao Forum on Hainan Island, he said that the biggest priority for
China is to increase domestic demand and maintain economic growth at a relatively
strong pace. Li
also said China will strengthen bilateral and trilateral relations and increase
free-market zones.
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01/09/2020 15:49
