by Wang Zhicheng

For the National Bureau of Statistics, manufacturing has grown, according to the HSCB it is decreasing. Official statistics are based on large industries and figures (often false) of the provincial governments. The Shanghai Stock Exchange continues to decrease, the real estate market is down, the production of cement and steel lower. In 2011 the profit of Maanshan Iron & Steel fell by 94%. Growing unemployment.Beijing positive and of HSBC negative statistics

Beijing (AsiaNews) - Two days ago the National Bureau of Statistics in China issued the data of manufacturing output (SMEs) for March, showing a positive growth. On the other hand, PMI calculated by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics shows a reduction of the sector and a fall in exports.

Official statistics claim that the PMI rose to 53.1, the highest value in a year. Instead, HSBC put it at 48.3, down from February, at 49.6. A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity, a higher level indicates that the activity is expanding.

According to analysts, the discrepancy in the figures is probably due to the fact that the Bureau of Statistics is based on data from the large industries, the negative instead relies also on data from small and medium enterprises in China which are being choked by the lack of access to credit.

Another fact to consider is that the data of the National Office is based on figures provided also by provincial governments which, for political reasons or career ambitions, swell the numbers and investment. Some large Chinese businessmen have told AsiaNews that in recent months they were invited to declare the "intention" of new investment in manufacturing, only to inflate the statistics.

In fact, this year for the first time since 1989, China has scored the highest deficit in the balance of payments and the index of Shanghai Stock Exchange continues to decline. It has lost 9% from its highest value reached Feb. 27. The market for property and houses, which in past years had grown so huge, now suffers from a decline in sales. The prices of new apartments in 47 cities fell to 70 and the halt in construction has reduced the production of cement and steel. In 2011, Maanshan Iron & Steel, one of the largest industries in the sector, has seen its profits fall by 94%.

According to HSBC, "the industrial production decreased mainly due to the reduction of domestic and foreign demand. New orders are in fast decline through 2012 and new exports fell for the second consecutive month."

Michael Pettis, professor of government at Beijing University, also points to another problem: "For the first time since the Asian crisis [of 1997], we are seeing a flight of capital from China, since last October. The money is leaving the system and there is a reduction in investments in small and medium enterprises. " This, in turn, leads to increased unemployment.

In early March, Premier Wen Jiabao forecast a growth of 7.5%, the lowest since 1990, and promised to boost domestic demand. Vice-Premier Li Keqiang has promised the same. Speaking today at the Boao Forum on Hainan Island, he said that the biggest priority for China is to increase domestic demand and maintain economic growth at a relatively strong pace. Li also said China will strengthen bilateral and trilateral relations and increase free-market zones.

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