As Iran's presidential race starts, candidates need to be male, Shia, pious and above all pro-regime
Tehran (AsiaNews) - Anyone who wants to run in Iran's presidential election must meet certain criteria. He (only males are allowed) cannot be Christian, Jewish or Sunni Muslim. He must be "pious", "trustworthy" and have "a good record". He must have a religious or political background, and not be involved in civil society groups. He must show initiative, sport "managerial skills," and "believe" in the existing system." Although the vote is set for June, the first phase ended yesterday with candidates submitting their application. According to Iranian media, thousands did.
In a live TV broadcast, Iranian interior minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar listed the legal criteria required to run for president. Once candidates meet them them, a process that already screens out more than half of the population (most notably women and Sunni Muslims), the Council of Guardians will examine their applications to determine whether they qualify or not to run for office. The pursuit to become a candidate is in and of itself the first political test of the election.
After what happened in 2009, when Ahmadinejad's victory was challenged by the rising 'Green Wave', Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is not likely to allow any reform-minded candidate with a chance of victory to run.
With the two Green Wave leaders, Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, under house arrest since 2011 and former President Mohammad Khatami discouraged and frustrated, and hardly able to enter the race, the only "progressive" candidate who might run is Mohammad Reza Aref, Khatami's former vice president, an unknown quantity to most Iranians with as much support.
Only candidates from the ruling camp are therefore likely to try to replace Ahmadinejad, who is barred by law to seek a third term.
Still, Iran's conservative camp is not united. In an article published in the Pan-Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, renown Iranian journalist Amir Taheri identified four groups within the conservative bloc.
The first one is led by Khamenei, and has the support of the Pasdarans, the Revolutionary Guards who control large chunks of the national economy, and the security services, backed by those segments of the population that benefit the most from the 'foundations' that control the economy.
The second one has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani as its reference, and includes former officials, businessmen and the urban middle class who distrust Ahmadinejad's populism.
A third group is loyal to the current president, and its support lies within that part of the state apparatus, Revolutionary Guards and clerics who question Khamenei's hold on power.
The fourth group includes dissidents, who officially profess loyalty to the supreme guide, but in fact accuse him setting up a despotic order with the support of the military and security services. They are the veterans of the Green Wave but since they are unable to operate openly, it is hard to assess their support.
In this context, there is little hope for the West and much of the Arab world to see any substantial shift in Iranian politics, especially on the nuclear issue.
All those who have a real chance to win, like former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf or former nuclear negotiator Hasan Rouhani, are good regime men, and staunch supporters of Iran's "inalienable" right to enrich uranium.
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19/07/2012
