by Fady Noun

All the indicators point to a dramatic economic and social situation, but Aoun and Hariri continue to turn a deaf ear to the appeals of the population and the mediations offered to them to settle their differences.

Beirut (AsiaNews) - Is the Lebanese state about to become a failed state? It is not such an improbable hypothesis should the situation remain as is. Indeed, the dangerous game of teetering on the brink of the abyss continues between the head of state, Michel Aoun, and the designated prime minister, Saad Hariri.

And this despite the depreciation of the national currency against the dollar continuing at a crazy pace (on Wednesday the dollar was worth 15 thousand Lebanese pounds); the street protests; the hundreds of visa applicants flocking to embassy gates; the crime indicators in the red (150% increase in muggings; the hundreds of business and traders lowering their shutters or suspending sales, pending a stabilization of the currency; the private hospital sector warnings of impending collapse and despite the commander-in-chief of the army, General Joseph Aoun, emblem of discretion in normal times, raising his voice to say that his soldiers are suffering from hunger.

The protagonists of the government crisis, who seem disconnected from reality, continue to turn a deaf ear to the appeals of the population and the mediations offered to them to settle their differences, which come from within, whether through the head of the Maronite Church, the Patriarch Béchara Raï, or the Speaker of the House, Nabih Berry or the Director of Security, General Abbas Ibrahim.

The two fronts trade blame for the stall in talks and attempts, through the government, to control the executive, both to paralyze the opponent's initiatives and in view of the next presidential elections in 2022.

From abroad, France has already spoken, through President Emmanuel Macron, who has called for the formation of a "technical government" made up of ministers not affiliated with parties. "The international community, starting from Paris, conditions the release of any financial aid to the formation of a government of technocrats responsible for structural reforms", underlines a dispatch from France Presse. Recently, faced with the inertia of Lebanese leaders, the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves le Drian, accused them of "not helping a country in danger".

Expectations regarding reforms have been the same for months: fight waste and corruption within the state, restructuring the electricity sector and a failed banking sector that blocks bank deposits in foreign currencies, restructuring of public contracts, reduction of spending, subsidy review and currency fluctuation.

For once, the French initiative is currently benefiting from the support of Washington and Moscow. Unlike his predecessor, President Joe Biden has in fact decided to give this initiative a chance. For his part, Moscow, through the voice of Sergei Lavrov, its foreign minister, expressed itself in favor of the "technical government" requested by Paris and chaired by Saad Hariri.

Lavrov just reiterated this support during recent talks with a Hezbollah delegation that went to Moscow mainly to discuss Syria's "stabilization". However, instead of taking advantage of this unexpected convergence, the two fronts continue to turn a deaf ear to the injunctions of the international community. With all the engines off, they are currently witnessing the implosion of a country that the AFP defines as "in free fall".

 

Here are some examples of the current collapse figures compiled by AFP:

Depreciation: The Lebanese pound lost almost 90% of its value. If the official exchange rate remains at 1,507 lire per dollar, on the black market it is about 15 thousand per dollar. As a result, the minimum wage (675,000 lire) is now worth about $ 45;

 

Poverty: 55% of the more than four million Lebanese live below the poverty line on less than $ 3.84 a day, according to the United Nations. The share of the population living in conditions of extreme poverty has risen to 23% (UN);

Inflation: at the end of 2020, annual inflation reached 145.8%, according to official statistics. The price of an average shop, including rice, bulgur, pasta and oil, has practically tripled since October 2019 (WFP);

Unemployment: at the end of 2020, the unemployment rate was estimated at 39.5%;

Public debt: public debt reached $ 95.6 billion at the end of 2020, or 171.7% of GDP (IMF);

Foreign exchange reserves: Central bank reserves totaled $ 17.5 billion in mid-March, according to the Banque du Liban website;

Social checks: a loan of 246 million dollars from the World Bank is used to finance checks for 147,000 disadvantaged families (almost 786,000 Lebanese). Each family should receive a base of 200,000 Lebanese pounds, plus 100,000 pounds per person, an amount that has become negligible with the current decline in the pound. In addition, Social Security reimbursements are now negligible, given the depreciation of the currency. For its part, the hospital sector, unable to cope with such huge losses, has announced that, inevitably, it is now accessible only to the wealthy categories of the population.

Last night, however, there was something new.

In a threatening tone, that of the career general that he is, the Head of State, Michel Aoun, addressed statement to the Prime Minister-designate, Saad Hariri in a televised, inviting them to come quickly to the presidential palace of Baabda "to immediately form a government, in agreement with the President of the Republic, as required by the Constitution".

The head of state then stated that "the government projects he submitted to me do not respect either the national balance or the Constitution". "In the event that he can neither compose nor preside over such a government of national salvation (...), he will have to give way to any other person capable of doing so," added the president, accompanying his offer with a warning against popular "anger" that will wait for him "if the nation collapses".

For his part, Hariri in a statement responded in substance that "President Michel Aoun must accept the government that I have proposed to him for months or resign, paving the way for early presidential elections. Like him, I am elected by Parliament, which entrusted me with the formation of the government.”

• Lebanon
• crisis
• economy
• Aoun
• Hariri
• poverty
• Béchara Raï
• France
• USA
• Russia
• purpose government
• reforms