The war with Iran has triggered a shift in Riyadh that is not merely geographical. Neom, Yanbu, and Jeddah are no longer just scenic elements of Vision 2030, but strategic infrastructures for survival. Hence, Mohammed bin Salman is trying to avoid all-out war with Iran (which would also jeopardise the Red Sea) in a context where the US is no longer a guarantor of stability.
Fourteen of 23 ministers have been named, with Interior and Defence still without office holder amid tensions between political parties. Two secret Israeli bases in Iraq were used to attack Iran. Pope Leo XIV met with Kurdistan's President Barzani. The newly elected Chaldean Patriarch Nona arrived in Baghdad, with his official inauguration on 29 May.
Iran accuses Prime Minister-designate al-Zaidi of being too close to US positions. Iraqi officials say Tehran is trying to exercise a veto and pressure Iraqi Shias. A visit by US officials is expected to oversee the formation of the new Iraqi cabinet. Israel is rumoured to have set up a secret base in the west of the country.
Tehran is looking at alternative transport routes from Pakistan to China. The exploitation of a rail corridor to China, especially valuable for oil transport, is under consideration. A fourth South Korean ship has successfully crossed the Red Sea. Energy is also a central issue at the ASEAN Summit in Cebu.
Lebanon’s south is now a battlefield where a regular army equipped with tanks and planes and guerrillas armed with rockets and drones hunt each other with no regard for the suffering of the local population. Beirut's Sports City is now a vast dormitory for refugees. President Aoun is gambling his political fate on talks, while Hezbollah attacks him with a smear campaign.
Three Indian workers were wounded in the Iranian attack on the Fujairah oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates, the only one that bypasses Hormuz, a development that threatens to reignite the regional conflict, amidst competing alliances and interests. Against this backdrop, Abu Dhabi decided to leave the cartel of oil-exporting countries and consolidate its alliance with Israel. These steps, for Iran, will lead to the “collapse” of the Gulf.
