香港立法会选举对中国人影响增加、民主派分裂加剧

作者 John Mok Chit Wai*

立法会选举结果表明新的、喧嚣浮躁组合，而且是宣言港独的脆弱学生运动。但北京警告：“一旦分裂将爆发社会灾难”。新立委退缩，民主派要找到与祖国母亲建立关系的新方式。公共管理系教授莫哲暐的评论

香港（亚洲新闻）—香港立法会选举“结果比预料的要好”。尽管反对派再次做出了好的见证，但内部分裂严重、青年参与不足。这是香港中文大学公共管理系助教莫哲暐就立法会选举结果向亚洲新闻通讯社发表的评论。

“地方派”和“独立派”的战绩令人震惊，新的政治组织，特别是青年运动再也无意与祖国大陆有任何关系了。新立委罗冠聪的五万张选票，跨越从北京独立的门槛。中央政府警告民间社会，一旦分裂将爆发社会灾难。而新当选立委明确回应，“不说独立，而是最大程度的自治”。

传统民主派的选绩令人失望，脆弱不堪的，甚至浮躁不安的学生运动组织居然战胜了传统派。香港民间运动历史人物李卓人、梁家傑等均未能当选。以下为莫助教的文章：

The result is better than expected, for the opposition camp succeeded in securing more than one-third of the seats, as well as more than half of the seats returned by geographical constituencies. This means that they can veto important bills and motions.

On the other hand, the opposition camp remains factious. Before, it was the pan-democrats versus the pro-establishment camp. But in this election, the localists won three seats, while three candidates proposing democratic self-determination also got elected. All of them are new faces.

Nathan Law, the youngest candidate ever elected in the history of Hong Kong, got more than 50000 votes on Hong Kong Island, while Eddie Chu got more than 80000 in the New Territories West. The voices demanding self-determination or even independence are surely galvanized. One can also expect that parliamentary resistance will become more sophisticated, and even more radical.

Some traditional pan-democratic parties suffered significant losses. Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood lost its only seat in the LegCo, while Labour Party's seats reduced from four to one. Civic Party secured six seats, but its total number of votes obtained, compared with the four years ago, dropped by 50000. The "traditional" pan-democratic camp needs to re-consider its approach in dealing with Beijing.

The pro-establishment camp continues to retain a majority in the LegCo. Yet, its composition has changed. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong remains the largest party in the LegCo, but the not-quite-loyal Liberal Party lost all its geographical seats. Those widely believed to have received "blessings" from the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government, such as Eunice Yung of New People's Party and Junius Ho, came out victorious. One can see that the Liaison Office is becoming more open in manipulating Hong Kong's elections.

The total number of voters taking part increased, but most of them are the old instead of the young. This may show that the electoral machinery taking orders from the Liaison Office, or even Beijing, is determined in countering the possible growing political participation of the youth."

*Teaching Assistant, The Government and Public Administration Department, The CUHK