Ukraine retaking occupied lands
The real measure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive will not be military but its psychological and informational impact on public opinion, at home, in the West, and in Russia itself. Meanwhile, the aura of Ukraine’s top military man, General Zaluzhnyi, is shining almost as brightly as Zelensky’s.
For more than a week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU[i] in Ukrainian, VSU[ii] in Russian, AFU in English) have launched a counterattack on all fronts, signalling the start of the reconquista of the territories invaded by Putin and his imperialist forces.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been front-page news for months, announced by politicians, generals, propagandists on both sides, war correspondents, Western analysts, and Kremlin officials.
The Ukrainians are attacking in several directions. They began in May shelling Bakhmut, a place covered by Russian media multiple times, that saw the Wagner Group pull out amid recriminations and accusations against Russian generals.
Now Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, pulled out altogether, announcing a "holiday" for his mercenaries until August, a way to avoid having to sign the mandatory contract imposed by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has not been spared Putin’s grumbling in public.
On 4-5 June, Ukrainian forces began their first push of the campaign, southward towards Zaporizhzhia and Orekhovo, Donetsk Oblast (province), Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said.
On 6 June, the Nova Kakhovka dam was blown up, ostensibly by the Russians to prevent the enemy from passing, even if it meant flooding the entire region, Russian fortifications included. On 9 June, Putin reported "huge losses" among Ukrainian forces, claiming that they had failed to reach their goal.
On 11 June, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence announced the liberation of two villages in south-western Donetsk, Blahodatne and Makarivka, south of Velyka Novosilka. The following day, the village of Storozheve was liberated, and, according to some sources, Novodarovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as well.
In Russia, the propaganda machine seems to be preparing for the loss of part of the occupied territories. On 4 June, one of Putin's loudest megaphones on television, Margarita Simonyan, called for an end to the fighting in order to proceed with "referendums in the disputed territories", as if those of last year, with subsequent annexation, no longer mattered even for the Russians.
Some have accused her of “defeatist propaganda”, but there is a growing feeling that the Kremlin's own mouthpieces are preparing for a "shameful betrayal".
Beyond the strategic importance of Ukrainian attacks, which are still very hard to measure even for military experts, since this is more of a phase with exploratory forays rather than a full-blown attack, the talk of Ukrainian reconquista varies according to the target audience.
For months, Zelensky has been trying to convince his Western partners that Ukraine can win, if only its military could get enough tanks, armoured vehicles, drones, assault planes, and every weapon it needs to start operations.
For their part, the Russians have fortified some 1,500 kilometres to withstand the assault, investing more than 10 billion roubles; yet raids by Ukrainian saboteurs, the diversanty, in the Belgorod and in other areas, have shown that it is possible to get through them, but not to attack them in force.
Russians boast of great victories, against Napoleon and Hitler, but Russia has always been successful in defence, never in attack; even the historic victory by Peter the Great against the Swedes at Poltava (Ukraine) in 1709 was achieved following a retreat.
For Ukraine, liberating its territories occupied by Russia will depend not only on the successes of its military, but also the continued flow of financial and military support from is allies, now that the country is seen as “NATO’s eastern tip”.
Nevertheless, sources in the Biden administration believe that if the Ukrainian attack is not “effective enough”, supplies of weapons and money will likely be significantly cut, and calls for peace talks with Russia will become louder and from more quarters, heeding the initiatives by Pope Francis and his envoys.
For Ukrainians a successful counteroffensive means freeing all the lands, Crimea included; in Western eyes, it would be enough to free Ukraine’s south-western regions on the Black Sea, or at least causing Russia such military losses that the Kremlin would have to think hard whether pursuing the war was worth it.
European countries in particular look at Ukraine not as an instrument of fighting, but as a people with whom they can finally engage in dialogue, especially after coming into direct contact with so many thousands of refugees who have come over the past year and half, joining other Ukrainians already present for many years.
The impact of Ukraine’s action will be less military than psychological and informational on public opinion, starting at home, where people have suffered immensely since the start of the war, and have seen no victorious move after the Russians were forced from the western bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson six months ago.
The fighting spirit of the Ukrainian military is still very high, much more than that of the Russian forces, but no one can tell how long it will hold up – what is needed is hope, comforted by some good results on the ground.
Then there is Western public opinion, hooked on the war via mainstream and above all social media. Decisions by Ukraine’s allies are largely shaped by the latest developments carried on Instagram, Twitter and TikTok and their impact on political decision-makers.
Ukrainians have tried to present their case via every media platform with global reach. Social media have become the conduits for fundraisers, appeals for volunteers, calls for equipment, drones, weapons, vehicles, and logistic material of all kinds in what Meduza's Signal column calls the "subculture of Ukraine's allies".
A third target group is Russians, for whom the counteroffensive counts more for its “panic effect" than all the drones over the Kremlin or distant regions, sabotage, or guerrilla attacks. All this tends to unnerve Russian military bosses, unsettles the country’s political leaders, and shake the complacency of the indifferent and apolitical masses.
Russian propagandists themselves have no idea where Ukrainian attacks will come from, and seem rather bewildered.
For Russians, the important thing is to hold on as much territory as possible in order to claim it. Compared to the start of the war, the situation has reversed: huge cohorts of Ukrainian soldiers are now threatening Russia’s “borders", and it is not clear how it will end.
Amid all this, a major figure is emerging in Ukraine, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If President Zelensky is the embodiment of Ukrainian resistance and cooperation with allies, Zaluzhnyi is the face of military salvation against the invaders.
In February 2022, he was known only in military circles, with the moniker “Lord Voldemort", the dark wizard in the Harry Potter saga, the “He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named”.
When Russian troops were closing in on Kyiv, Zelensky and his advisers suggested blowing up the bridges on the Dnipro, to prevent the enemy from entering the capital. Zaluzhnyi came out openly against this, saying that he would defend the bridges. Since then the Russians have been in retreat, leaving behind the bodies of those they slaughtered in places like Bucha, Mariupol, and elsewhere.
This earned Zaluzhnyi the front cover of Time magazine, and an in-depth reportage on "The General and the Ukrainian Way of War," the face of a victorious Ukraine.
The general says he is a "disciple of Gerasimov", his counterpart in the Russian Armed Forces, whose "books he has read", a believer that "all true military science is in Russian-Soviet manuals".
In this war, he personifies the true nature of the conflict, the impossible synthesis of the West and the East of Eurasia, the great geo-political, philosophical, and religious problem of this war.
The Ukrainian general has performed the miracle of combining the wisdom of endless spaces with the undercurrents of neighbouring states, the great distinction between Asia and Europe.
He is the commander with a “human face”, who jokes with the troops even in the direst situations, much more ironic and iconic than Zelensky, the professional comedian, who instead has taken on the aura of the severe and unwavering president, in a surprising role reversal that might even herald a future rivalry at the ballot box, once the current crisis is over.
The Russians have multiplied fake reports that he was seriously injured, undergoing brain surgery, but this is certainly not the only piece of dezinformatsiya in this brutal, hybrid war.
The picture of the general making the victory sign with the caption “God and Ataman Zaluzhnyi are with us” is a hit across Ukraine. Ataman is the historic title given to the supreme military commanders of Cossack forces.
In a war of symbols and images, Putin is now the “Lord Voldemort” who turns to dust, the sorcerer wiped out by the victorious Ukrainian wizards.
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[i] Збро́йні си́ли Украї́ни (ЗСУ)
[ii] Вооружённые си́лы Украи́ны (ВСУ)
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27/10/2023 11:00
01/07/2022 15:02
28/02/2022 15:08
