US warns that Mosul dam is at risk of collapse, but for Iraqis this is an "exaggeration"
For US officials, the danger is “serious and unprecedented”. If the dam fails, water could kill up to 1.47 million people. For 30 years, engineers have been propping up the structure, but for a brief period, it was the control of the Islamic State group. For Iraqi Christian lawmaker, there are no sign of collapse.
Baghdad (AsiaNews) – The US embassy in Baghdad has issued a warning saying that the risk of the Mosul Dam collapsing is "serious and unprecedented" and has urged people to be ready to evacuate.
If the dam bursts, floodwaters could kill 1.47 million Iraqis living along the River Tigris, the Embassy said. In view of the situation, Iraqi Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi said that precautions are being taken, but unlike the US Embassy, he reiterated that that the worst-case scenario is "highly unlikely".
The Mosul dam is among the most dangerous in the world. Built in the early 1980s, it suffers from structural flaws with the water constantly eating away at the soluble gypsum base on which it is built. To counter the erosion, engineers drill holes in the gypsum and fill them with a cement grout mixture six days a week.
Recently, the US Army Corps of Engineers also issued a warning. If the dam should break, its 11 billion cubic metres could flood the Tigris River valley, as well as Mosul, Baghdad, Samarra and Tikrit, with catastrophic consequences.
Maintenance work was disrupted after the Islamic State group briefly seized the dam in 2014.
Researchers from Sweden’s Lulea University analysed the case, simulating the consequences of a flood. Their models indicate the wave in case of the dam failure will be 26 metres when it reaches Mosul in four hours, continuing at 16 metres for another 18 hours, until it reached Baghdad covering the Iraqi capital in 4 metres of water and debris.
Recently, the Iraqi government contracted the Italian engineering firm Trevi to repair and maintain the structure. Some 500 soldiers will be deployed to provide them security, and train local forces.
Although the Mosul dam is a major issue in the international media and among Western governments, in Iraq the issue appears less important.
Contacted by AsiaNews, Christian lawmaker Yonadam Kanna, head of the Assyrian Democratic Movement, and a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Labour and Social Affairs, said that the United States has been warning Iraqi authorities “since 2006”.
Still, “I don’t understand why the US is so concerned.” The latest warning a few days ago said that “satellite imaging suggested that the water level in the Dam dropped suddenly by a metre.” However, “Iraqi engineers checked what was going on, and found that the waters had not dropped by a single centimetre.”
"In any case,” he added, “I can confirm that at present there are no signs of possible failure at any point in the dam structure" and this will be the case "for decades to come."
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