12/09/2024, 10.22
RUSSIA - SYRIA
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The Russian post-Assad rebus in Syria

by Vladimir Rozanskij

Moscow granted asylum to the leader of the Damascus regime that collapsed in a few days under the offensive of Islamic militias from the north. In Soviet times, Syria was considered the ‘sixteenth republic’ of the Union, but Moscow's relationship with Damascus is much older, also due to ties with the patriarchate of Antioch. The node of the military bases in Tartus and Latakia, over which they will try to negotiate with the country's new leadership.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - Last stop Moscow: the Kremlin confirmed last night that the deposed Syrian President Bashar al Assad along with some family members arrived in the Russian capital fleeing Damascus. According to Russian agencies, Putin offered him asylum for humanitarian reasons.

Russia is a privileged observatory from which to watch the sudden fall of the Assad regime in just ten days due to a completely unexpected attack by radical Islamic militias from the north-west of Syria.

Damascus' army and special services have melted away like snow in the sun, but above all, the Russians, who had been protecting the regime for decades, have withdrawn. The new situation puts Moscow's forces, which have their main base in Syria in the Middle East and Mediterranean area, on hold.

In Soviet times, Syria was considered the ‘sixteenth republic’ of the Union, and Moscow's relationship with Damascus also goes back centuries, both in relation to the political balance in the area, and because of the special connection of the ancient Orthodox patriarchate of Antioch with the more recent patriarchate of Moscow, to which the Syrians have always given their support.

Now the country is dominated by the jihadist group Hay'at Tahrir ash-Sham, considered terrorist in America, throughout the West and in Russia itself. The soldiers of the Syrian army have made it known that with the fall of the dictator, who had been in power since 2000 after succeeding his father Hafiz, who had ruled the country for 30 years, they now feel disbanded from their oath of allegiance, fleeing to Jordan or Iraq to escape enemy fighters.

It is clear that the action of the Islamists had been prepared for some time, and is a direct consequence of the Russian war in Ukraine. In Syria, Russia's most heinous militias, the battalions of the ‘Chechen butchers’ and the mercenaries of the Wagner Company, assembled by the then-deceased ‘Putin's cook’, Evgenij Prigožin, had been formed, and there has been no trace of them in the Syrian lands for some time.

The mercenaries have themselves dispersed after the tragedy that caused the founder to disappear, and the Chechens who massacred the Ukrainians in the early years of the current war are now concentrated on the Kursk region, partly occupied by Kiev troops.

If one also considers the actions of Israel, which has reduced the pro-Iranian forces of Hamas and Hezbollah, also supporters of the Assad regime, to nothing, one realises that the timing was perfect for the final assault of the Islamic opposition forces.

Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Gazi al-Djalali made himself available to the new victors led by Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, remaining in Damascus under their custody. The Russian embassy in Damascus stated that ‘the situation is under control’, and everyone is working at full capacity.

The most important Russian bases in Tartus and Hmeimim, near Latakia, are currently awaiting instructions, and the Russian Foreign Ministry informed that the soldiers stationed in these and other locations are ‘in full war footing’, but at the moment ‘there is no threat to their security’.

As Russian political scientist Nikita Smagin explains, Russian operations in Syria over the past decade have been ‘the first attempt to re-present itself as a major power on the international stage’.

Now Moscow's reaction to the current events is very cautious and confused, as it is an entirely unforeseen situation, but the Russians may not be entirely upset by the regime change. While officially defending Assad from Islamic terrorists, what matters most for Russia is to remain in the region to defend its interests in the big geopolitical picture, keeping soldiers, ships and planes near the Mediterranean.

The Russians blame the West for the fall of Assad, because of the sanctions regime against him, and do not seem to be averse to an agreement with the new winners.

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