The International Monetary Fund forecasts "alarming risks" and recession
Tokyo (AsiaNews /
Agencies) - The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast
once again, pointing to the difficulties of the Eurozone and the United States,
creating waves of poverty in other countries. A
few days after its annual meeting in the Japanese capital, where it presented
its "World Economic Outlook", the IMF forecasts global growth of 3.3%
this year, the lowest since 2009 and 3.6% for 2013. Only
in July, it had predicted growth of 3.5% this year and 3.9% next year. But
the IMF says that the
risk of further deterioration - even less than 2% - are
"alarmingly high."
According
to the IMF everything depends on how Europe and the United States react. In
Europe, it stresses the importance of integrated spending and fiscal policies among
euro zone countries, as well the increasingly urgent need for the creation of a
union-wide bank.
The
United States must solve its fiscal problem and raise the debt ceiling. According
to the IMF, if this does not happen, the U.S. is at risk of recession.
The
fall in growth is also problematic for emerging countries, affected by the
difficulties in Europe and the United States (fall in exports), as well as
internal difficulties. The
forecast is for a drastic reduction in the growth for Brazil, 1.5% this year
(in July the forecast was 2.5) and 4% in 2013. India
could grow by 4.9% and 6% next year (previously the figures were 6.2 and 6.6). The
estimates for China are down 0.2%, reaching 7.8% in 2012 and 8.2 in 2013.
Another
risk for the global economy could result from an increase in oil prices. The
IMF forecasts that the price of crude oil will be around 106.18 per barrel this
year and 105.10 in 2013.
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