Thaksin's daughter, the youth or the military: the three roads in Bangkok

On Sunday Thailand will vote in poll to end era of Prayut Chan-ocha's rule in a country deeply in crisis. Weakened by divisions the 2019 vote winners, the Move Forward Party is a possible outsider. Army chief rules out new "interventions." The unknown factor of a possible return from exile of Shinawatra in case of a broad affirmation of his Pheu Thai.

Bangkok (AsiaNews) - Thailand returns to the polls on Sunday, May 14, and rather than economic and social programs or ideals, teh vote hinges on a change of the ruling guard since the last coup that returned the military to an increasingly contested key-role.

Significantly, voters-52 million out of 67 million Thais-are being asked to choose only the 500-member House of Representatives (400 elected in uninominal constituencies, 100 by proportional system), where the pro-military party has ended up in the minority due to internal divisions, and not also the 250-member Senate, which is exclusively military-appointed.

Facing off against each other are three main challengers with a few other extras and among them the Democratic Party, the oldest still in the Thai parliament, historically a proponent of conservative politics and the second victim of the generals' choice to take power directly into their own hands, this time forming their own party, the Palang Pracharat.

The PD has now ended up in the parliamentary rear, effectively irrelevant even in its historical role of supporting the monarchy. A more direct victim of the May 2014 coup had for several years been Pheu Thai, whose closeness to the policies and interests of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, in voluntary exile since 2008, cost him continued and direct pressure from the military in their claim to restore "harmony" in the country after years of tension and violence following the September 2006 coup.

Since voluntary exile, Thaksin has continued to guarantee himself and his relatives and supporters (now his youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a candidate for premier) support that is in turn affected by persistent popularity resulting from concrete actions to benefit less favored groups, but also from populism and criminalization of opponents.

Pheu Thai is given as the favorite, close to 50 percent of the vote, although it would need the support of 376 parliamentarians (between House and Senate) to designate the new premier.

The Palang Pracharat, the most direct heir to the coup experience, the largest parliamentary formation after the 2019 elections and abandoned by Premier (former general leading the coup) Prayut Chan-ocha who has joined a new formation (Ruam Thai Sang Chart), fully shows its limitations and especially a lack of concrete proposals to bring Thailand back to a situation that is both favorable and sustainable, beyond the interests of the armed forces and elites.

Finally, an outsider is the Move Forward Party, favored among youth and free enterprise, led by entrepreneur Pita Limjaroenrat, who proposes progress, freedom and pragmatic direction to Thais.

Unable to address issues that are too hot (and even legally punishable) with the risk of a backlash from the military leadership, but also with a social and economic reality struggling in the post-pandemic and the lack of coherent revitalization policies, the running parties have used the leverage of benefits and investment.

To the point that on May 4, the National Anti-Corruption Commission itself warned that this could have a distorting effect on voters' choices and expand the already extensive corrupt phenomena.

Some elements are now debated and uncertain in the outlook: Thaksin Shinawatra has anticipated the possibility of his return after the vote, but no one ignores the disruptive effect such an event would have, which would first require a victory by his supporters such that the risk of arrest would be limited and a reaction from the military commands.

In this regard, the army chief, General Narongpan Jitkaewthae, ruled out a new coup yesterday, urging the media to stop using the word "coup" with reference to the military.