Political analysts and observers say a debate is underway in the government and leadership over 4 June. For Beijing, the protest movement was counterrevolutionary. This could change with the rise of China's fifth generation of leaders in October. Others are less optimistic, at least on the short run.

Beijing (AsiaNews) - The 23rd anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre came with its usual lot of arrests and censorship. However, some analysts believe that a reassessment is underway of the pro-democracy anti-corruption movement, which the Chinese government has always deemed "counterrevolutionary," because of the approaching party congress in October, when a fifth generation of leaders will take over from the current one.

China observers think that Vice-President Xi Jinping, who is expected to be the next president, may be inclined to revisit Beijing's stance on the military crackdown once he consolidates his grip on power.

Even current Premier Wen Jiabao is rumoured to have voiced support in the past for a rethink.

Liberal economist Mao Yushi and Wang Juntao, a former leader of the pro-democracy movement, said that the hard-line opposition to a vindication of the movement appears to have been diluted.

Dai Qing, a journalist and writer, noted that a growing number of retired leaders have tried to vindicate their roles in the deadly crushing of the student-led protests in 1989.

In addition to the 2009 publication of a secret memoir by then party chief Zhao Ziyang, who was later placed under house arrest for opposing the crackdown, ex-premier Li Peng and former Beijing mayor Chen Xitong gave their versions of the event.

The publication of Li's book was cancelled at the last minute under pressure from Beijing, but some excerpts suggest that the "butcher" was simply following orders.

Chen said as much. The massacre of 4 June "stemmed from the internal [power] struggle at the top level and led to a tragedy nobody wanted to see." In his case, he only obeyed the orders given him from above.

"Following the death of Deng and other party elders who should have been held accountable for the crackdown, cadres who played key roles have appeared quite keen to set the record straight and tell their sides of the story. Fewer and fewer people [in the government] believe it was right to use the military against its own people," Dai said in relaying what Chen told him.

"I believe there is some sort of consensus within the leadership that it was a tragedy that occurred at a historical juncture; sooner or later it will have to be reopened and reassessed."

For the first time, small commemorations were held in the mainland. The authorities intervened right away to stop them, but participants who were arrested were quickly released.

In Hong Kong, about 180,000 people, including many mainlanders, took part in the annual rally to commemorate the martyrs of Tiananmen.

Yao Jianfu , a retired Communist official, is less optimistic. "The legitimacy of subsequent generations of the party leadership, from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao, has been tied to the 4 June event," Yao said.

At the time, Hu was party secretary in Tibet and he was the first to send a telegram to Deng congratulating him for his tough stance against the demonstrations.

Given this background, "How can it be possible to expect a complete reassessment of the student-led protests?"

 

 

• china
• tiananmen
• crackdown
• rethink
• communist
• party
• fifth
• generation