Russia retreats from Syria

The demobilisation of Moscow's army from all its positions in the country is now an obvious fact. According to many sources, part of the personnel and equipment could be transferred from Syria to Africa, first of all to Libya, to the territory under the control of General Khalifa Haftar. It is more unlikely that the troops returning to Russia will significantly affect the conflict in Uctaina.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - After more than three weeks since people began wondering how Russia could retain its military bases in the new Islamic Syria, the situation is becoming significantly clearer: even those who thought permanence was possible are now witnessing a real evacuation of Russian troops from all positions.

The military columns that lined up, leaving Latakia and Tartus, passed in full view, and in some videos Syrian men in military uniforms were seen throwing stones at the Russian trucks from the sides of the road.

In another video, the exodus of Russian soldiers from the Tiyas airbase, also known as T-4 or Tifor between Homs and Palmyra, was seen.

The footage also shows military technology abandoned in the flight of the armies of the former Bashir Assad regime. Nearly 500 military personnel, according to reports by Russian journalist Anastasia Kaševarova, moved to the Tartus base and then to the Hmeimim air base, from where many were flown back to Russia.

Satellite images also show the manoeuvres of the Russian retreat from Syria. The ships ready to transport the troops remained 8-15 kilometres from the shore, and one of them, the patrol ship Admiral Grigorovich, was filmed refuelling from the tunker Vjazma, which was previously stationed in Tartus, where the Russians evidently no longer have a port for their boats.

From the port of Tartus, in fact, the Monolit-B mobile radio surveillance port complex, which had been in operation for many years, was dismantled, while the landing ships Ivan Gren and Aleksandr Otrakovsky headed in that direction, evidently with the task of loading all the equipment still remaining in Syria.

In recent days, Turkey's foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, declared that Ankara ‘does not approve’ of the presence of any foreign military base in the country, and the Turks allowed Russian aircraft to fly to the Hmeimim base, despite having closed the airspace to Russia since 2022, allowing them to transport people, but not war materials. This is in contrast to statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin that ‘we do not know whether our soldiers will remain in Syria’.

According to many sources, part of the Russian personnel and equipment could be transferred from Syria to Africa, first of all to Libya, where the contingent of Russian forces is mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the country, on the territory under the control of Moscow ally General Khalifa Haftar.

The Libyan sites most accessible to the Russians are the Al-Jufrah airbase, the port and airport of Benghazi and the port of Tobruk, and there have already been Russian flights in these directions.

Russia has several other bases in Africa, where it has greatly strengthened its military activities in recent years: in addition to Libya, the most ‘hospitable’ countries are Mali, Central Africa and Sudan, although the transfer of large contingents of war tech would cost Moscow very dearly, according to experts' calculations.

Already today between Libya and Mali there are at least 1,200 Russian volunteers of the ‘African Corpus’, heir of the Wagner Company of the late Evgenij Prigožin, and other satellite images show a peak of activity in the maritime base in Sudan, where the Russians have an agreement to occupy the Red Sea control zone from 2019.

Since the previous year, the Russians have been stationed in the republic of Central Africa, but commentators rule out an excessive dispersal of Russian forces in all these different locations.

Putin's priority, after all, is not the defence of the various African leaders, but the preservation of his own forces even in distant territories.

On the various Telegram channels historically linked to the Wagner fighters, there is considerable scepticism about Moscow's ability to maintain control over its positions in Africa, as it no longer has the necessary port of call of Syria.

According to various observers, the contingents being evacuated from the Syrian bases will not particularly affect the conflict in Ukraine, as they amount to between 5 and 7 thousand soldiers, most of whom are dedicated to logistical operations, in addition to translators, advisors, and officers, while the actual fighters are the equivalent of a single battalion, certainly not capable of producing a disruptive effect on the war.