Presidential Election: Retired Generals in Pole Position
Jakarta (AsiaNews/Agencies) - On 5 July, 150 million voters will cast their ballot for the first direct presidential election in the history of Indonesia, the world's biggest Muslim country. Some surveys put retired General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former Coordinating Minister and now Democratic Party candidate, in the lead followed by retired General Wiranto, and outgoing President Megawati Sukarnoputri.
For Megawati, who has disappointed many of her supporters, the road to another mandate seems to be an uphill battle. Her erstwhile followers had high expectations that she could deliver on her promises; instead, corruption has become pervasive, unemployment is rising and ethnic and religious violence is increasingly endemic in many parts of the huge Indonesian archipelago.
In a poll by the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), Susilo had the support of 43.5% of would-be voters, whilst Wiranto trailed with 14.2%. Both are former army officers.
Human Rights activists and university students have reacted thus far by shouting slogans claiming that "people want a president, not a commander." All clearly remember the struggles of 1998 that led to the collapse of the 32-year old Suharto dictatorship. Yet the population seems to be drawn to a strong leader, to someone who might fix the situation and keep the country together. Opinions tend to favour Susilo over Wiranto because he is seen as more honest and with a more positive track record in resolving the conflict in the Moluccas and in the anti-terrorism campaign in Bali.
What is unclear is how much leverage both Wiranto and Susilo will give the army.
Both are officially in favour of civilian control of the armed forces, but both want the army to keep a monitoring presence even in the remotest villages and insist on the army playing an important role in the country's political and economic life.
During the Suharto era, the army managed a good portion of Indonesia's economy and had about one hundred reserved seats in parliament. The armed forces were thus not at the service of the nation but were more like a partner in a power-sharing arrangement.
With Suharto gone reforms in the army were implemented that were designed to enhance the military's professionalism, subordinate it to civilian control and push it out of the economic sphere. This did not take place without resistance by elements within the military. For this reason, Susilo's election would fulfill both popular demands for a strong leader and satisfy the military's need to remain central in the country's politics.
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