Only a peace accord between Israel and all the Arab states will end the violence

Tel Aviv (AsiaNews) – Once more the inherent instability of the Middle East has been violently revealed by the military attack on Israel from Lebanese territory, which is viewed in Israel as a declaration of war on Israel by the Lebanese State itself. "It is not a terrorist attack," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert insisted, "it is a military attack by one State - Lebanon - on another: Israel." Hizballah, the armed Shiite organisation that actually carried out the attack - and is continuing it at the time of writing - is now an integral part of the Lebanese State - Israel is pointing out: It is part of the parliament and the institutions, and the Lebanese State itself has openly "entrusted" to Hizballah the control of Southern Lebanon, and has continually refused the demands of the U.N., and most of the rest of the world, that the Lebanese Army take charge of the South, all the way to the Israeli border. Israelis are as united over this issue as they have not been for many years. Lebanon has no excuse, they maintain. Already in spring 2000, Israel withdrew totally from every centimeter of Lebanese territorry, right down to the international border, in complete obedience to the UN Security Council (on this issue, in any case). And the UN has officially certified - and confirmed again and again - that this is indeed so. Nonetheless, Hizballah and other armed organisations, approved and protected by the Lebanese Government, have since then several times launched attacks, not only on Israeli soldiers across the border, but also against the civilian population, sometimes with lethal results. Israel, until Wednesday this week, implemented a strategic choice to react, if at all, in a very limited way, and has mostly relied on efforts by the U.N., the U.S., France and others to persuade Lebanon - and its alleged patron, Syria - to compel Hizballah to cease such attacks. Hizballah, it is believed, could not accept such a demand, since maintaining its (at least sporadic) war against Israel - supposedly on behalf of Islam -  is the basic reason for its "legitimacy" in Lebanon, and a condition for continued Iranian support. It is, in fact, Iran that finances Hizballah and supplies it with arms and missiles - through Syria. And it is Iran that has a fundamental, publicly announced, policy of total enmity towards Israel, sometimes seeming to call quite literally for the fiery destruction of the Jewish State.

Now, after the unprecedented attack - on a broad front, including the killing and capture of Israeli soldiers, as well as the traumatising of all of Northern Israel - Israel can no longer afford to avoid a massive response. The Army and overwhelming public opinion are united in thinking that not responding would certainly be far, far more dangerous to Israel than any possible adverse consequences from a decisive military response.

The attack from Lebanon has gravely damaged the Palestinian cause. Just at a time when it seemed that Israel was on the verge of somehow agreeing to negotiate - even though perhaps only indirectly - with the Hamas government of the Palestinian Authority, for the return of one captured Israeli soldier, and for a bilateral cease fire in and around Gaza; just at a time when the Palestinians were gaining increasing international sympathy for the humanitarian emergency in Gaza... Just at this time, the attack from Lebanon changed the picture completely: It has shifted the focus of attention, and could be a great help to the anti-Palestinian propaganda in the West, which portrays the Palestinian institutions as just another component of the world-wide web of  Islamist terrorist organisations, of which Hizballah has been a prominent  component for many years. Whatever happens in the next few days (or weeks), the Palestinians are (again) the greatest losers from these developments.

And Lebanon? It has always been clear that, at some time, Lebanon will have to face the inherent contradiction between the image of the country  (peaceful, democratic, prosperous) that a great majority of the Lebanese so much desire, and the fact that this is a country that insists on hosting, and protecting, a vicious terrorist organisation (as well as other "official" terrorist units from Iran, and other unacceptable elements). This time may now have come, and the Lebanese may no longer be able to avoid making an unequivocal choice - or perhaps not... 

Somehow or other, with greater or lesser bloodshed and destruction, even this particular crisis will pass. What then? What is the strategic meaning of it all? the lesson for policy makers?

Once more the sudden flare-up of tension between Israel and Lebanon proves that the only real solution can be found in a comprehensive peace between Israel and all her Arab neighbours. This is an ambitious goal, of course, but perhaps the only one truly worth pursuing, and one that it is indispensably necessary to pursue. This, in fact, has been the goal of the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, which then U.S. President George Bush and his Secretary of State, James Baker, organised - with very wide international support. It was in order to bring together Israel and her Arab neighbours, and to work out a comprehensive system of peace treaties and multilateral agreements. It has precise terms of reference, especially Resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, accepted by all. Since then further promising formal premises have been added, including the 2002 Arab League summit resolution, calling, in essence, for normalisation of relations between all Arab nations and Israel. Abandoned not long after its first, long-ago session, but never formally dissolved, the Madrid Conference seems - today more than ever - as the most promising vehicle, or framework, for a renewed, purposeful attempt to end the violence, and inaugurate a different future for the people of Israel, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria (Egypt and Jordan already have peace treaties with Israel). Evidently, to accomplish this, a truly "generous contribution" (in the words of Benedict VI - 29 June this year) will be needed from the international community.

• israel
• iran
• hezbollah
• peace