One year on from vote, Iraq is without a government and on the brink of civil war
The UN mission has launched an appeal for 'dialogue without preconditions' to break the political and institutional deadlock. Since the elections of 10 October 2021, no agreement has yet been reached on the appointment of a premier and a new government. The current executive only has the current affairs at its disposal. Economic problems and wasted wealth. The unresolved knot of (Christian) refugees.
Milan (AsiaNews) - A "dialogue without preconditions" to unblock a political and institutional stalemate that has dragged on for a year, since the October 2021 parliamentary elections that did not guarantee a definite majority, resulting in a logic of traded vetoes. The latest in a series of appeals was launched by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI), which is appealing to all the parties involved, from the Sadrists to the pro-Iranians, from the Sunnis to the Kurds, to work for the birth of a new executive.
The UN note explains, 'through compromise, [all parties] must collectively agree on key outcomes that reaffirm their publicly stated objective, which is to service the needs of Iraqi people and establish a fully empowered and effective government.”
However, there are no elements on the horizon that portend positive breakthroughs, while the power vacuum risks favouring, today as in the past, a new spiral of violence by jihadist movements or interest groups supported by regional or international actors.
It is an institutional impasse, more so than a political one, an abyss as the Chaldean bishops define it, which many believe should be tackled not with an early vote, but by the apparatus of the State and rewriting the rules of competition. Here too, interest in the country is relegated to second place and overwhelmed by party selfishness and personal objectives of political leaders and their guardians abroad.
Institutional paralysis
A year ago, parliamentary elections were held in Iraq as a result of an early vote called in response to nationwide street protests against corruption and malfeasance. To date, the country does not have a new government, nor has it been able to vote - and approve - the state budget, as well as the appointment of a new president of the Republic and prime minister, extending the offices ad interim. The only election completed is that of the president of the Chamber, entrusted to the Sunni Mohammed al Habousi, who has also resigned.
For the head of state, a Kurd, several nominations have been burnt and there is no unanimous consensus on extending Bahram Salih's mandate. This paralysis has prompted Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi himself to publish a communiqué in which, addressing all forces, he calls for renewed collaboration and an end to the crisis through dialogue. These words seem destined to fall on deaf ears, prolonging the stalemate of an interim executive with much reduced powers and margins of manoeuvre, especially in the economic field and with a view to alliances on a regional and global level.
The crux of the matter revolves around the winner of the elections, the radical Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr, who does not want to submit to a broad-brush executive, but at the same time does not have the numbers to form a majority government; on the other hand, the pro-Iranian Shiite faction of the Coordination Framework is pressing for a broad-brush formation. Added to this are tensions fuelled by external interference and foreign powers with opposing interests.
The paralysis in the institutions has been counterbalanced by tension in the streets, which reached a peak at the end of August following al-Sadr's announcement that he wanted to retire from political life, words that prompted his sympathisers and supporters to take to the streets to demonstrate, with the risk of a drift towards civil war. The appeal by the Shiite leader himself and a laborious mediation effort have restored calm and averted further bloodshed, while leaving the country's many problems unchanged. "The situation remains extremely fragile," Special Envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert stressed to the UN Security Council. 'Too many Iraqis,' she added, 'have lost confidence in the ability of the political class to act in the country's interests'.
Growth and poverty
Rich in hydrocarbons, but devastated by decades of conflict, Iraq has collected substantial revenues from oil exports in the current year. This wealth, however, ends up locked - and unused - in the coffers of the Central Bank, where foreign exchange reserves have reached almost 90 billion. Investing this wealth requires a government in full power and capable of presenting a budget to parliament, a prerogative that is not up to the interim executive who can only manage current affairs.
'Every infrastructure project,' economist Yesar Al-Maleki tells L'Orient-Le Jour, 'requires years of planning. The political situation has caused massive disruption, which has aggravated the bad reputation'.
On the other hand, the World Bank shows projections of an average annual economic growth of 5.4% between 2022 and 2024. In June, parliament passed an emergency funding law worth almost 18 billion euro, which includes the purchase of gas and electricity, as well as grain to ensure 'food security'.
This situation of chaos 'does not allow opportunities for economic and private growth' despite first-class potential. Looking ahead to 2023, the authorities may be tempted to pass another emergency finance law. Indeed, several projects launched by the Ministry of Oil and foreign companies are progressing far too slowly, and it is the population that is paying the price: in a nation of 42 million inhabitants, almost four out of ten young people are unemployed and one third of the total live in poverty (UN sources).
Displaced persons, an ever present emergency
It is the weakest and most marginalised sections of the population who suffer. Among these are the Christian refugees who, in the summer of 2014 following the rise of the Islamic State (IS, formerly Isis), abandoned their homes and lands in Mosul and the Nineveh Plain.
While some have been able to return, many more remain abandoned to their fate, and a weak government, combined with virtually absent institutions and aid realities, have contributed to exacerbating the emergency.
Among the few realities that are trying to help, albeit with limited resources, is the Chaldean Church with its primate Card. Louis Raphael Sako, who in recent days visited the reception centre in Zayouna, on the outskirts of the capital, sharing the suffering and needs of the guests.
Accompanied by auxiliary Bishop Basil Yaldo, on the evening of 5 October, the cardinal went to the Virgin Mary complex, which the Baghdad Department for Investment and Development intends to evacuate. In the facility, which stands on state land, there are up to 120 families relocated to the area in the past by the central government.
Among the problems these families are facing is the start of the school year, with the need to guarantee attendance for their children, and the arrival of the winter season. Card. Sako himself is negotiating with the officials of the Capitoline administration to postpone the evacuation for at least a year, in order to be able to find a suitable alternative with a view to welcoming them, while working on long-term solutions in Iraq.
The fear, which the Church would like to avert first, is that of a new exodus abroad to Europe, North America or Australia, thus adding to the already large number of Chaldeans in the diaspora.
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