One-child law and laojiaos, hopes and fears ahead of Plenum’s final document
Beijing ( AsiaNews) - The Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party had decided to "relax" the one-child policy in force in the country and stop sentencing against dissidents , activists and common criminals to hard labor. These decisions, however, are all still mere rumors leaked to press, while Party officials point out that "we must still wait for" the final text of the Plenum , which will be released on November 19 . The delay of the publication of the document is apparently fruit of a serious split within the Communist leadership.
The opening title of Xinhua - the
central government news agency - states "China decides to loosen one-child
policy". The
article quotes President Xi Jinping, who, during the meeting of Communist
leaders would have said : " To push forward
sustainable, healthy economic and social development, there is no other way but
to deepen reforms and opening up". However,
it does not specify which areas should be reformed and opened up.
According
to Guo Zhenwei, a demographer and official from the Commission for family
planning, the reform " will be carried out in phases. Most likely will
leave those provinces that have a long history of low birth rates, such as
those of the East , and then it will be expanded to the entire
nation. But full liberalization will not happen before 2020". There
are still diverse hypothesis for now:
some argue that a second child will be allowed for couples with one child only,
others think that the reform will be valid only for those born in the second
half of the seventies. In
any case, as Guo admits , " the birth rate should not exceed 1.8. At the moment
we are between 1.5 and 1.6 ." To
balance the proportion of births and deaths a birth rate of at least 2.1 is
needed.
The reform of China's birth policy is termed "critical" by economists and social analysts. According to Chinese demographic experts, 117 male babies are born in China for every 100 girls , a disproportion that collides violently with the world average of 104 males per 100 females . Since 1978 only one child is allowed to urban residents and two to rural farmers . The country went from 5.83 children per couple in the 70s, to 2.1 children in 1990, arriving at the current 1.3. Experts estimate that there are currently about 40 million males "with no ability" to marry a fellow citizen. This is creating a social imbalance and threatens to smash the state coffers, since no labor force means no pensions. There are also problems in the health sector, forced to take care of millions of senior citizens who do not have children or families who can support them.
Doubts and uncertainties also surround
the possibility of abolishing the laojiao prison system, which has existed
since the days of Mao Zedong. Often
Christians , dissidents , Falun Gong members are sentenced to them. The
state-run newspaper China Daily reports that there are about 320 laojiao labour
camps, where 500 thousand people are confined, mostly criminals from the drugs
world. Labor
camps - organized as farms or industries - where the prisoners have a punishing
schedule, up to 12-15 hours a day, for little monthly pay.
The
abolition of the system has been announced on and off for about a year, and the
continuous round of confirmations
and denials
seems to have been a way to test the response of the population and the of the
national leadership before putting the abolition into practice. Nicholas
Bequelin , a researcher with Human Rights Watch, argues that "the tiger
does not change its stripes. Given that ' maintaining stability ' is the government's
obsession, they will find another form of extra- judicial detention with which
to replace the labour camps".
The
third and final planned reform relates to the economy. According
to reports, the final document is prepared to allow the privatization of economic
giants until today in the hands of the State : telecommunications,
transportation and banking. From
a technical point of view, those who want to henceforth invest in national
projects will no longer need government permission unless it is programs
related to national security, ecology, strategic industrial distribution and that of natural resources. According
to some economists, this is very good news, since it actually opens up the
market to raise fresh capital from abroad.
However other analysts point out that less government control could lead
to industrial decisions that could worsen the situation of workers and thus to
create more social instability. Another
step for reform is the demand that the state-owned industries pay to the
Government 30 % of their profits. So far they have had to give up
5-20 % .
The
fact that the reform plan has not been unanimously approved by the Plenum is
also demonstrated by the appeal launched today by Zhang Dejiang , chairman of
the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress "number 3"
in the new Communist hierarchy . Zhang
today asked "all members of the Party" to " fully understand the
importance of the Plenum". In
an article that appeared this morning in the People's Daily , he wrote:
"We must work as one man to put the decisions and political plans into
practice. We all have to take responsibility for what is happening."
However , as noted by Zhang, the President
Xi Jinping and his team know the work of "problems" and "hidden unknowns"
of the national situation and have until 2020 to " achieve decisive
results". The
reference is to the hundreds of social variables that might call into question
the stronghold of Chinese politics; the monopoly of the Communist Party that
must be protected above all else.
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22/09/2016 11:02
