New Duma upholds status quo, but puts future at risk
Putin's party, United Russia, gets 76% of the seats and now will unilaterally carry out constitutional reforms. But experts say this is not the goal: the vote gave further legitimacy to regime ahead of the presidential vote in 2018. Experts: "The system as it is cannot last long. Today in Russia, Parliament is not the place to resolve conflicts, as in other democracies".
Moscow (AsiaNews) – An overwhelming majority for Putin's United Russia party, the declining interest of citizens towards politics, four old parties and the total absence of any real opposition. This is a summary of the new State Duma, the lower house of Russian parliament, following the September 18 elections and where the majority party will occupy 76% of the seats.
With 99% of votes now counted , the Central Election Commission (CEC) said that United Russia dominates with 54.7% of the votes, the Communist Party (KPFR) is second with 13.3%, just below the Ldpr nationalists with 13.18%. The fourth party is Fair Russia with 6.21% of preferences.
Only two deputies from the many small parties have won a seat: Civic Platform and Rodina (Motherland). These political formations are distant from the Kremlin, especially in foreign policy. United Russia has "unexpectedly" gained a two thirds majority - as admitted by the chairman of the CEC, Ella Pamfilova - a (343 seats out of 450), needed to change the constitution.
The vote delievered a resounding defeat to the two main liberal opposition parties, pro-Western and non-parliamentary Yabloko and Parnas (of the murdered former deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov), who stopped well below the 5% election threshold and that of 3% for public funding. Fragmented and fractious, but also disadvantaged by little media exposure, the opposition failed to mobilize the electorate and exploit the weak openings left by the Kremlin with the new electoral law and the parties.
Declining turnout, but "clean" vote
Another surprise was the fall in voter turnout below 50% compared to 60.1% five years ago. This confirms the great apathy in Russian society towards politics, but according to experts it also indicates that a large segment of the electorate are uncertain about the future.
According to some observers, the figure declined also because this year - with the Kremlin determined to take home clean elections to avoid a repeat of the protests of 2011 – there were no so-called 'administrative resources' that is, the practices to 'encourage' public employees to vote, either through rewards or intimidation.
Nonetheless OSCE observers - in their preliminary report - have called the vote "ordered" and praised the fact that the complaints of irregularities were addressed in a "transparent" manner. Head observer Jan Peterson, however, stressed that "control of the media and civil society" in part prevented the Russian voters from making an "informed choice."
The Duma and Presidency
According to the director of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow, Boris Makarenko, this homogeneous Duma devoid of the slightest opposition will augment the policies of the "Putin regime", in view of his re-election to the Kremlin. The presidential elections are scheduled for March 2018, but may also be held earlier, and Vladimir Vladimirovich says "then it will count on the support not only of those who vote for United Russia now, but also the electorate."
The next Duma, also could become the reservoir from which to draw members of the team of the future new president, chiefly composed of young and obedient bureaucrats replacing the old circle of friends linked to the FSB.
The elections have given the regime "further confirmation of its legitimacy and it is now ready for the presidential vote”, according to Andrei Kalesnikov from Carnegie Moscow. He believes the vote was a purely technical exercise: to preserve the Duma for the four parties as it had been so far.
This model will last until 2021, continues the analyst, but has now run its course: purely personalistic parties devoid of any ideology, with aging leaders now sit in Parliament. "It is a system that will hold for the medium term, but not in the long run," noted Kalesnikov.
This was echoed by Makarenko, who has highlighted the risks of not making reforms. "Democracy is not characterized only by free elections, but also on the ability to solve conflicts between different interests, in a peaceful way. This is not possible today in Russia and it is dangerous, because there are major challenges ahead, such as the reform of economic and social development system
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21/09/2021 10:32
14/09/2016 18:41
