It is clear that the military has allowed Sharif to return home after four years in exile in London for the elections, experts say. Meanwhile, the other former prime minister, Imran Khan, has been indicted on new charges, yet continues to enjoy great popularity. The political interactions between the two will determine how voters will cast their ballot.

Islamabad (AsiaNews/Agencies) – Shortly after the return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from a self-imposed exile in London, another former prime minister, Imran Khan, was indicted for divulging state secrets, a charge that adds to the long list of legal cases that the leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (the Movement for Justice of Pakistan or PTI) has to face after being removed from the post of head of government in April 2022.

Both prime ministers were accused of a series of offences and more or less forced to drop out of political life once they lost the support of the Pakistani military (which holds the real power in the country).

Sharif fled abroad, while Khan has tried – even from the prison where he is currently held – to incite his supporters against the new government led by Nawaz's younger brother, Shahbaz Sharif.

But while Khan will likely be barred from upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for January 2024, Sharif could be elected prime minister for the fourth time in his political career, most of which was spent clashing with the military.

Until the day of the election, which should be announced shortly, the country is in the hands of a caretaker government led by Anwaar ul Haq Kakar.

Jailed for corruption in 2017, the leader of the Muslim League of Pakistan (or PML-N, where the "N" stands for Nawaz) flew to London in 2019 after getting bail, ostensibly for medical treatment.

Since Imran Khan was dismissed by parliament in April 2022, Nawaz has resumed playing an active role in Pakistani politics and returned to Islamabad last weekend. In the meantime, his party has nominated him as its candidate for prime minister.

During a public rally in his hometown of Lahore, Nawaz announced that he wanted to solve the country's economic crisis, adding that he did “not have any plans to take revenge against people who ousted my government.”

Still, many Pakistanis blame the PML-N for the country’s economic woes, one of the points Imran Khan stresses even though he was unable to do better once he came to power.

Low foreign exchange reserves months ago forced Pakistan to borrow from the International Monetary Fund and implement austerity measures, which provoked popular discontent.

“We are not responsible for the increase in electricity prices but we will work to reduce them," Sharif promised.

At present it is unclear whether Nawaz will be able to get the military’s (tacit) approval to govern, but last week, the Islamabad High Court granted him protective bail, preventing him from being arrested upon landing.

It is also unclear whether his party will be able to improve its standing in public opinion polls.

By contrast, despite his many legal cases, Imran Khan is still very popular, perhaps, also because of the repressive actions taken by Shahbaz Sharif’s government against him in recent months.

The government has in fact tried everything to get rid of the 70-year-old former cricket star, through arrest attempts (failed due to the opposition of his supporters) or by forcing PTI members to leave the party.

The new accusation of revealing state secrets appears to be yet another attempt to prevent him from running in the elections.

According to Tahir Malik, a professor of international relations at the National University of Modern Languages (NUML) in Islamabad, Sharif has been careful to shift the focus of his political stance from the supremacy of civilian rule over the miliary to the development of the country, "in a bid to avoid confrontation with the [military] establishment,” he told Nikkei Asia.

Yet it is unlikely that Nawaz's return alone will be enough for him to rally enough voter support, this according to Cyril Almeida, a journalist and political commentator in Islamabad.

On the contrary, for many commentators, the fact that the former prime minister was allowed to return thanks to a deal with the military will certainly not play in his favour come election day.

At this point, it remains to be seen if and when the elections are actually held, because much will depend on the whatever support Nawaz Sharif will be able to garner between now and then.

• pakistan
• elections
• nawaz sharif
• imran khan
• military