by Stefano Caprio

The war in Ukraine is forcing the peoples of these countries to make a clear choice, against their own conscience. Moldovans want a place in the world, not just in the "Russian world", to which they already belong. Even more heart-wrenching is the choice Georgians have to make this weekend, deciding their country’s future in addition to picking their representatives in parliament.

Last week Moldova held a presidential election and a referendum on EU membership, while Georgia holds a parliamentary election today. The two countries lie on the historical and linguistic borderlands dividing the Russian world from Europe and Asia, on opposite ends of Ukraine and the Black Sea routes, where the great war between East and West is taking place.

In Moldova, the results are uncertain, with a substantial draw between Russia and Europe, with the latter prevailing by a whisker, while the run-off in the presidential vote sees incumbent President Maia Sandu ahead of her rivals, but without any certainty of victory.

In any case results in Georgia will show the same rift between the two worlds, with unpredictable consequences for the near future.

Georgia is an ancient country. Unlike the Armenians who broke away, it remained faithful over the centuries to the Byzantine Church despite disputes at Christian Councils, and centuries later, when Russia was born, it was always in sync with it from their shared Orthodox faith.

Even today, the Georgian Church instinctively feels closer to Russia than to the West, and is trying to assert its specificity even in political controversies.

Moldova, on the other hand, is a mix of Russia and Romania, created out of Russia’s wars against the Ottoman Empire in the 18th century, with a great Orthodox monastic tradition that moved from Mount Athos in Greece to the Russian spirituality of the 19th-century starets.

As former Soviet republics, Georgia and Moldova are now trying to rework the legacies left by their distant past with their more recent history, claiming an identity that cannot be separated from relations with Russia, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine and its lands, to which both peoples are very close.

The referendum in Moldova ended with a 50.46 per cent majority in favour of European integration, with  49.54 per cent against. If President Sandu manages to win the run-off next week against her rival, the pro-Russian Aleksandr Stoianoglo, she will try to confirm this narrow victory by including in the country's constitution the "irreversibility" of the European project, declaring it a "strategic goal” for Moldova.

Russia has been directly involved in the Moldovan election and felt it unnecessary to hide its actions, since the Russian language is well understood across the country, sparking nevertheless protests from many Moldovan and European politicians, such Siegfried Muresan, the Romanian chairman of the European Parliament's delegation to the EU-Moldova Parliamentary Association Committee, who hailed the results of the referendum as “victory for the people of the Republic of Moldova and a defeat for Russia. It is a victory that safeguards the European future of the country.”

In fact, the Russians have also tried to directly buy Moldovan votes, with many agents handing out more than one hundred million euros. Two weeks before the vote, the Prosecutor's Office uncovered a network of bribers, tracing it back to Ilan Shor, a pro-Russian Moldovan oligarch and politician who was convicted in Moldova for fraud and money laundering.

The ongoing conflict is not ideological, but only a test of strength on the small territory of a country of three and a half million people, which the Russians have always considered so strategic that they occupied part of it, Transnistria – a strip of land bordering Ukraine that controls access to the Black Sea, and exists a separatist republic claimed by both Moldova and Russia – also backing the autonomy of Gagauzia, a region on Moldova’s south-western border with Romania, to show the border posts of the Russian world in the region.

Provocations and interference will continue since the country is set to hold the second round of presidential elections in early November, and parliamentary elections next year.

Moldova, after all, is a parliamentary democracy, not a presidential republic, and the Kremlin still as many cards to play to influence local politics, to gain control over the country along Ukraine’s western border, giving Russia a position it cannot give up, even more than in Georgia.

It will be very hard to find a much needed balance in Moldova; in any case, even if the pro-European victory is confirmed, it will take a long time to bridge the gap in a fragmented society, considering that just over half of eligible voters cast their ballot. There are many people who are sceptical about the real chances of escaping the grip of the Russian bear, as there are about obtaining real aid from Europe.

Negotiations to join the EU began last year, and President Sandu is promoting various social welfare initiatives, like almost doubling pensions, and introducing free meals in schools.

Her rival Stoianoglo, a new player in Moldovan politics, is betting everything on the fight against corruption, a classic problem in all ex-Soviet countries, shrouding his closeness to the Kremlin with populism. In his campaign, he is beating hard on the slogan "Justice for all!", promising that in case of victory he will continue the path to European integration,  but "not as it is being done now", leaving different scenarios open.

Victory in Moldova was in any case a close call, in a country stuck in a "gray area" for 30 years, between two worlds, a situation not unlike the people, not only with one part of the population against the other, but also in the heart of each Moldovan, who would like to feel both Russian and European at the same time.

The problem is the war in Ukraine, which has forced the communities living on this land to make a clear choice, against their own conscience: Moldovans want to have a place in the world, not only in the Russian world, to which they already belong, with a strong legacy from the Soviet past.

Even worse is the choice Georgians have to make this weekend, when not only parliamentary seats are decided, but also the future of the country, where people, according to observers, must decide not only between East and West, but also "between peace and war".

Here too it is about choosing between Europe and the Russian World for a population slightly larger than that of Moldova. After three decades of post-Soviet contradictions, the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party, in power for 12 years, has not formally rejected European integration, while the pro-European opposition does not want to give up economic relations with Russia,  which has brought benefits to Georgia since the invasion of Ukraine.

Article 78 of the Georgian constitution formally reads: “The constitutional bodies shall take all measures within the scope of their competences to ensure the full integration of Georgia into the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.”

Georgia signed the Association Agreement with the EU in 2014; since 2017, a visa-free movement regime has been in place for its citizens in the Schengen area, and in 2023, it was granted candidate status for Union membership.

However, in May of this year, after the approval of the law on "foreign agents", relations with European Union and the West soured. The law has halted all social development initiatives linked to foreign funding, blocking bank accounts of people with Western contacts, under surveillance to monitor their health conditions, membership in religious groups, political opinions, as well as sexual orientation, in accordance with a clearly Russian inspired homophobic law “against LGBT propaganda”.

The Georgian Dream party hopes to win enough seats to outlaw all opposition, and the country risks sinking into civil war again, something not unheard of in the Caucasus.

Russia is watching and using tools of interference developed during Soviet times, starting with the ruling parties in various countries, trying to push them towards its own interests.

Moscow has another card to play, not only in Moldova and Georgia, but everywhere, that of  conservative groups who defend “traditional values”, a card that is very effective in Europe and America, backing its action with multiple forms of dezinformatsija, disinformation, and propaganda.

The war also allows the Kremlin to use the apocalyptic threat as a form of pressure, modulating its statements of principle with a great ability to adapt to the various contexts in different countries, moving from Pan-Slavism and radical Orthodoxy to the most subtle forms of anti-Semitism, “anti-Ukrainian Nazism", and support for different groups, like the Palestinians, easily connecting with many Western political movements.

One of the Kremlin's most yearned for goals is the reduction of NATO and EU influence in Eastern Europe, to be brought back into the fold of the Russian world.

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• russia
• moldova
• georgia
• elections
• european union
• interference