Males only and ageing: problems of the one-child policy
The government birth control policy has led families to prefer male sons. Selective abortions and other "selection" technology are widespread and according to predictions, the problem can only get worse in the future. Experts say a different social policy is called for, especially in rural areas.
Beijing (AsiaNews/SCMP) In 20 years time, 10% of Chinese men will find it difficult to get a bride. This is one consequence of government birth control and one-child policies that are increasingly coming under fire within the establishment.
A study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Population and Labour Economics ("Green Book of Population and Labour") released on 16 August said the newborn ratio was 121.2 boys to 100 girls in 2004 after more than two decades of a "one child" policy and parental attempts to select the sex of their child (in 2000 the ratio was 117 to 100). Researchers consider a ratio of 107 males to 100 females as normal. If the trend continues, many boys in the 1990s will be hard pressed to find a wife.
The study said the birth control policy was expected to result in a population of "only" 1.47 billion to 1.6 billion by 2050 from the existing 1.3 billion; other estimates point to "partial" success and predict an increase to 1.45 billion by 2030. The study does not hide the fact that the policy has had damaging consequences: "selection" preferring males in families and a progressive aging of the average age in large cities.
Co-author Zheng Zhenzhen said: "Chinese parents... still value a baby son more as Chinese men have to shoulder the responsibility of carrying on the family line and supporting their ageing parents later in life."
Chen Youhua of Nanjing University's Faculty of Sociology confirmed that the one-child policy had prompted many couples, especially those from rural areas, to resort to sex selection by aborting female fetuses. It has also led to abuse of selection technology like ultrasounds. Guangdong and Hainan have recorded the worst gender imbalance with 130.3 males for every 100 females and 135.6 for every 100 in 2000.
Such "selective" practices have been banned in many parts of the country and a Girl Care Project is under way that offers financial incentives to parents of girls in rural areas. Dr Zheng said the problem would persist "as long as the culture remains the same" and until "social inequalities are eradicated".
Another problem tied to a shortage of women and the obligation to have one son is an ageing population. In large cities, the average age is spiraling to vertiginous heights and the risk looms of a resident elderly population. Some statistics reveal that by 2050, elderly people will account for 30% of the total population, a factor that threatens to destroy the country's economic development. In Shanghai, declining birth rates have already prompted the authorities to encourage the birth of a second child.
Experts predict that the problem can only get worse, considering that today, 42% of the population lives in the cities, a rate held to be low compared to industrialization levels. Currently the rural population is younger: the percentage of children is higher and in many areas peasants are allowed to have a second child if the first is a girl.
Social services in rural areas (wanting in everything) must be boosted, say experts, adding that migrant workers in cities must be granted their proper rights: they are not resident so they cannot access social services and this makes it difficult for their families to join them. Others say an adequate social benefits and pension system is a must, especially in rural areas, to overcome the conviction that a male son is needed to support parents in their old age.
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