Lebanon: Tension (and deaths) with Israel in the south. Fragile truce does not bring peace

An attempt to return to villages near the still-occupied border has left 26 dead and over 160 injured. New deadline of 18 February for Jewish State troops to leave the country. The incidents revive Hezbollah, which insists on the legitimacy of ‘resistance’ to Israel, which must remain armed. US envoy Morgan Ortagus, who succeeds Hochstein, is expected in the coming days.

Beirut (AsiaNews) - ‘My son is still there. His body has been lying on the ground for three months, let me pass’. ‘He is your son and he is also my brother. Try to understand, it is only in your interest that we keep you away.’

This exchange between a woman from the south who, like many of the inhabitants, was trying to make her way to her ruined village, still occupied by Israel, and a Lebanese soldier who, with his fellow soldiers, formed a human barrier to prevent her from doing so, sums up the dramatic and ambiguous situation into which Hezbollah threw the people of the south and the army last weekend.

The troops did their best to prevent the population expelled from the villages in October following the Israeli evacuation order from suffering further losses. However, despite all the precautions taken, this disorderly return to the part of southern Lebanon still occupied by Israel resulted in 26 dead and almost 160 injured in two days, including a father and mother, a scout leader and a soldier.

This disorderly move was made under pressure from the pro-Iranian Party of God. The pretext given was that the 60-day period in the ceasefire agreement of 27 November 2024 had expired. ‘We will not accept this deadline being extended even for a second,’ Hezbollah Secretary General Naïm Qassem had declared.

However, already in the previous days, and regardless of any coordination with the commission in charge of overseeing the ceasefire, Israel had declared that its army would not withdraw from some villages in the eastern sector, while warning the population not to approach its positions.

Lacking official reactions from the newly elected President of the Republic Joseph Aoun or interim Prime Minister Nagib Mikati regarding the unilateral change of the Jewish state, the Lebanese Shia movement allowed itself to ignore Israel's warning. And heedless of popular security and the army's public image, a popular movement was created to force the timing and manner of a return, contrary to public opinion.

The inhabitants peacefully challenged the Israeli army and its decision, with the result we know and further bloodshed. Many cited attachment to the land and respect for the dead, some of whom are still buried under the rubble of their homes, to justify their decision.

The resulting popular movement has resulted in an advance, albeit limited, towards the occupied villages with the Jewish state's military ceding a few hundred metres of the territories under their control. On the other hand, these small ‘advances’ and the losses incurred were exploited skilfully at the political level by Hezbollah, which denounced the apathy of the authorities in Beirut and, at the same time, stressed the need for ‘Islamic resistance’.

However, horrified by the death toll of 26 January, the bloodiest day ever recorded with 24 dead, the government reacted. In agreement with France and the US, the following day the Israeli army was granted an additional period of grace - expiring on 18 February - to evacuate Lebanese territory. At the same time, the Israeli side has already announced that it wants to maintain at least three high positions on Lebanese territory.

The issue will be raised with the US envoy Morgan Ortagus, who succeeds Amos Hochstein, the architect of the 27 November ceasefire and the new implementation process of UN Resolution 1701. In this regard, Ortagus herself is expected in Lebanon in the coming days.

In the past few days, to reiterate their position, convoys of motorbikes have crossed some arteries of Beirut's Christian neighbourhoods, shouting ‘Shiites! Shiites! The Amal movement branded this gesture as a ‘dangerous provocation’ that risks fuelling an escalation of tension and threatened to expel the young people involved from the group.

At the same time, Israel claims to have intercepted a Hezbollah surveillance drone launched from Lebanon on 29 January. But on the same day, the Israeli army reduced a poultry farm to smoke and dust and set fire to a villa near the Markaba (Marjeyoun) intersection.

This morning, the army (IDF) reports several raids during the night against Shia movement targets in the Bekaa valley and along the Syrian-Lebanese border, including a facility ‘used for the development of underground weapons and another associated with arms smuggling into Lebanon’.

These destructions seem to have no other justification than to depopulate the border area and humiliate a people deeply attached to their land. One wonders what this state will do when the population begins to rebuild its villages that have been mercilessly razed to the ground.

The Prime Minister-designate, Nawaf Salam, has not reacted to these incidents and has shifted his attention to the formation of the new government, trying to reassure the Lebanese about the work being done to achieve the goal. In fact, after consulting with the head of state, he declared that the new executive will ‘soon’ see the light of day.

His criteria for this delicate exercise include the non-accumulation of parliamentary and ministerial functions, the need for the government not to be ‘a miniature parliament’ and the absence of any EU or party monopoly on a ministerial portfolio, given that the Shiite tandem retains that of Finance. Interviewed by AsiaNews, a local political expert, on condition of anonymity, points out that these developments clearly indicate that ‘Hezbollah is regaining strength and has not given up its ambitions’.

Moreover, the analyst adds, it is equally clear that ‘the ceasefire in southern Lebanon has not brought peace’. ‘This clearly demonstrates,’ he concludes, ’the ambiguity of half defeats and half victories that history leaves unresolved.