Last minute crackdown by Burmese regime before election farce goes ahead
New Delhi (AsiaNews) – Myanmar’s ruling junta is not going to allow voting in 12 villages, in six different electoral districts located in Kayah State, home of the Kayah ethnic minority. According to the ruthless regime, the conditions for free and fair elections are absent. Back in September, the authorities had taken similar steps for other states in the Union, affecting most notably Kachin, Kayin, Mon and Shan minorities.
Meanwhile, rumours are circulating that the vote is already rigged with ballots already marked in favour of pro-junta parties.
Overnight, a young activist with the now dissolved National League for Democracy (NLD) was arrested because he was handing out flyers calling on voters to boycott the vote.
In order to understand recent developments and see possible future scenarios, following Myanmar’s election farce, AsiaNews is reprinting an analysis by Tint Swe, Information Minister with the India-based National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB).
The news coming out of Burma is all about the election to be held from 7th to 11th November. Four Burmese language services, namely BBC, Voice of America (VOA), Radio Free Asia (RFA) and Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) as well as blogs are telling what the New Light of Myanmar and newspapers inside Myanmar do not or cannot write or say.
More restrictions, more security, more law breakings, more vote buying practices by the authorities are reported as the election draws nearer. There are reports and interviews on protests, anger, disapproval, billboard smearing, and more against the Union Solidarity Party (USDP), the party of the military regime, set to win by hook or by crook.
The National League for Democracy’s boycott election campaign is also underway and gaining more support. The article from the New Light of Myanmar on 1 November 2010 said that if the election was not successful the army would continue to rule. Apparently, the junta is still not 100 per cent sure of the election. It means that the army will go for plan B, which is to start from ground zero.
The new Myanmar flag is flying since 3:33 pm on Thursday, 28 November 2010. It was done on the advice of astrologers who are more authoritative than the constitution that has to be approved by the first session of parliament. It cannot be a coincidence that the new flag is identical with that of the government in exile, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB). Maybe it was chosen for spiritualist guidance.
According to nonpartisan reports, there are serious disagreements among the ranks and file of the ruling regime. The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) must work hard to negotiate between army officers still on duty and recently retired former military. The USDP is not the unanimously favoured party in the army. Thus, the SPDC must do more deceitful work than expected before.
It is clear that only two parties, the USDP party and the National Unity Party (NUP), which changed name from the Burmese Socialist Program Party (BSPP) of the late dictator General Ne Win, are main contenders in this election. However, a lucky few may come up from other parties like the National Democratic Forum (NDF), a splinter from the NLD and the Democratic Party (Burma), the party of the last democratically elected prime minister of Burma, U Nu.
Success depends however on how much one can hoodwink and how much one can make use of money and bureaucratic powers. Loans, free spectacles, mobile phones, unwarranted and excessive advance voting, ambiguous identity cards for controversial nationals, free money, etc. Tricks include threats, intimidation, bullying, coercion and more. This is what is called discipline democracy.
Vote counting by hand at township commission offices will be scrutinized by officials from the central government. This is different from 1990. As was the case for the referendum in 2008, vote counting and the announcement of results will be centralized so that manipulation can be done without public scrutiny. It is okay since there are no outside observers or foreign media.
Domestic media and local people who work for foreign media will be air-lifted to only at 18 selected voting sites. This is similar to poppy field destroying and heroin burning shows for foreign journalists and diplomats.
Internet has been slowed down, if not cut off. It can become quickly inaccessible, as was the case during the monk-led protests of 2007. However, media professionals are as smart as the junta is. Genuine and accurate news reporting will come out all the time. Nonetheless, the media are not as powerful as guns when it comes to Burma.
The generals in Naypyitaw will have to sit down to look at the results and stage-manage the outcome if necessary. In Burma, the announcement on TV is official for the public. Announcing the winners will be carefully done to coincide with Aung San Suu Kyi’s release. Hence, results may not come as quickly as they did in the 1990 election.
If everything goes well, Aung San Suu Kyi will be freed two days after the election. Thus, it will be interesting to see how and when election results are made public. Whatever the case, the generals know that no one will have the right to ask for them.
Nothing in the election law says if and when results have to be made public after the election. In 1990, the law said that the Election Commission had to submit a final report before the parliament was convened. This is a legal excuse for the junta since the previous Election Commission has yet to submit its final report for the 1990 election 20 years ago.
A few days before the election, the sentiment of ordinary Burmese is equally negative against China, India and Russia, let alone North Korea. Let us see which country is first to congratulate U Thein Sein, chairman of the USDP and the sure winner of the election.
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