03/23/2004, 00.00
Taiwan - China
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KMT compares Chen Shuibian to Bin Laden, USA and China follow developments closely

Taipei (AsiaNews/Agencies) – A cloud of tension is still hanging over the country after the re-election Chen Shuibian. The president's re-election had been preceded by a controversial assassination attempt and is now followed by rival cries for nullification of "rigged" votes.

Yesterday the High Court of Taiwan assured that it will reach a decision in "less than 6 months".  Court officials also said they were evaluating the opposition's proposal to recount votes, stating it was a priority to recover 330,000 invalidated ballots in an attempt to figure out for which candidate citizens really opted.    

Polemics continue to develop over election outcomes. The Kuomintang (KMT) party publicity headquarters, headed by the Taichung city mayor, published a series of manifestos in which Chen Shuibian is compared to Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. KMT spokesman Chou Shou-tsun said that the propagandistic posters were "very nicely done" but added that the party had "no offical comment" to make.

Meanwhile Chen Shuibian's re-election has provoked widespread reaction and analysis from national and international circles.  

There are many worries about the country's economy stirring among Taiwanese businessmen. They fear that Chen's re-election may strain relations with China, isolate Taiwan and jeopardize business between the two nations. Many do not trust that Chen's government will create better transport links with China, as the KMT party had promised if elected. Chen himself had promised the same thing after he was first elected in 2000. Citizens working or investing in China hope that elections results will be declared invalid.      

Wei Tian-hsiang is one of 3000 Taiwanese citizens residing in Shanghai, a third of whom returned to the island to vote (80% ended up voting for Lien Chan). He said that "if Lien had won, we would have had 'three new links' by the end of the year, starting with air, freight and transport for people" to go to and from the mainland. He added that "Lien Chan would have begun freeing up the flow of many between the two countries." According to some academics China might place limitations on commercial trade with Taiwan should the island continue to push for independence.    

Dr. Fan Xizhou of the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University said that China might begin making trade threats, but also that government "leaders hope to create conditions to deal with a potential crisis in the future by means of social and economic exchanges and contacts."   

According to certain analysts, Chen's re-election marks the death of the reunification movement with China, running aground even the KMT intentions to rejoin with the mainland. Even though the party officially promotes the "one China" policy, KMT now says that is it is resigned in favor of maintaining the status quo.

Dr. Philip Yang of National Taiwan University said that the elections have confirmed citizens' Taiwanese identity, but added that it is still too early to say whether this translates into nationalism or not. Dr. Lin Gao, a professor at Taipei's Tamkang University, said he's concerned about growing Taiwanese nationalistic sentiments. "People must have neutral feelings, otherwise sooner or later (Taiwanese nationalism) is bound to clash with Chinese nationalism," he said.       

In international circles Chen's re-election spells concern over Taiwan's future relations with China. This risk of a potential conflict particularly gathers the interest of the United States, which has always "allied" itself with Taiwan, yet now commercially speaking is closer to China.

According to former US deputy defense secretary, Chas Freeman, Beijing's threats to attack Taiwan are credible, as seen in the increase in warheads aimed at the island along Chinese coasts. Since China can only opt militarily to battle against the "rebel" island's independence analyst James Mulvenon considers the China-Taiwan situation as being so risky that he says it is almost inevitable that a conflict breaks out in the strait of water separating the two. Mulvenon furthermore believes that Taiwan's push for independence is derived from the conviction that the United States will come to their defense if invaded by China.    

Mulvenon predicts that a powerful Chinese military operation will take place off the cost of Taiwan. The United States and Taiwan both have denied rumors saying that American assistance was requested to mediate between Chen Shuibian's government and the opposition.   

During Taiwan's presidential campaigns China steered clear of making excessive comments.  Yet the country made serious delays in reporting news on Chen Shuibian's assassination attempt and election results. China broke its silence only on the day following elections, releasing various news on the failure of the referendum and protests heard across the island.

The Xinhua news agency says that China" is carefully following all developments" and that the "country-dividing" referendum failed to receive a minimum number of votes. Some articles pointed out that the international community has cast doubts on election results and is against Taiwan's independence.

In internet chat-rooms harsh criticism has been directed at Chen Shuibian and his separatist policies. "Everyone knows he rigged elections," said one on-line chatter. "We should give up on the dream of peaceful reunification and begin preparing ourselves for a military strike," urged another. (MR)

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