Israel in shock at election results
Tel Aviv (AsiaNews) - Moderate, "normal", Israelis are still reeling from the shock of the results of the general election held on 10 February, which have seen the ascendancy of the nationalist right wing, with an unusually large representation for the right's extreme fringes. More than any other result, it is the number of seats in the 120-member unicameral parliament, the Knesset, that will now go to the extreme right wing nationalist "Yisrael Beiteinu" Party that has been causing consternation. The nationalist extremism of this party is not even about the perpetuation of the military occupation (begun in 1967) of the West Bank and the Golan Heights, but about inciting ethnic tensions within Israel itself, between the majority Jews and the minority Arabs. Headed by Mr. Avigdor Liebermann, a settler from Russia, with unsavoury ties in his original homeland, and almost permanently under investigation by police and prosecutors (on suspicion of bribery and money-laundering), this party may have a key role in a right wing Government headed by Mr. Netanyahu, if one is established. The only ray of light in this result is that Mr. Liebermann's extremism is strictly secular and even anticlerical, and that his party would serve as a counterweight to the theocratic programme of the fundamentalist Shas party, which is also a likely important participant in a right-wing Netanyahu government.
But will it be Mr. Netanyahu who will form and head the new government? This is still not at all certain, although he himself says he is. Mr. Netanyahu was prime minister once before, from 1996 to 1999, and his tenure is generally remembered as a dismal failure on all fronts. But, at least in theory, he can command a parliamentary majority made up entirely of the right, whereas Ms. Livni's Kadima party, even if it does come out ahead in the number of legislators, cannot build up a majority of the centre-left, because such a majority simply does not exist.
Under these circumstances, many agree that the "least worst" coalition government would be made up of Mr. Netanyahu's Likud, Ms. Livni's Kadima and what remains of Mr. Ehud Barak's Labour Party (which has been devastated further by these elections after years of inexorable decline). Together the three parties command a comfortable parliamentary majority, and could afford to leave out all the "crazies", the nationalist extremists as well as the religious fundamentalists.
But will it happen? Most people I have talked to doubt whether Mr. Netanyahu and Ms. Livni could set aside their "egos" sufficiently to agree on such an "emergency programme".
And eve if it does happen, it is practically certain that, with Mr. Netanyahu's Likud in the government, in such a prominent, commanding (or co-commanding) role, there will be no prospects at all for any peace treaty, with either Palestine or Syria, and that therefore the peoples of the area will be able to hope at best for all their governments together to be willing and able, not indeed to resolve the conflict, but to "manage" it as competently as possible, and to avoid pointless provocations, while waiting for yet another election and another government in Israel to take up the challenge of peace.
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