Is it possible to halt the Ukraine war?

Trump is reported to have asked Russian President Putin to meet him as soon as possible, while there is increasing talk of an end to the conflict even if it is not clear on what basis. The analysis for Radio Svoboda by Vitalij Portnikov, one of the most important Ukrainian commentators: the important thing is that the West does not allow Moscow to ‘politically swallow’ Kiev anyway.

Moscow (asiaNews) - As the New Year approaches, and the inauguration of Donald Trump's presidency in the United States, there is more and more talk of an end to the Russian war in Ukraine, although there are still no concrete prospects that could lead to peace talks.

Just yesterday Trump reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin would ask to meet him as soon as possible, although he did not confirm whether the meeting would take place.

One of the most prominent Ukrainian commentators, Radio Svoboda columnist Vitalij Portnikov, tried to summarise the elements that could support the breakthrough that everyone is waiting for.

One of the most repeated arguments concerns the new US president's chances of influencing his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyj, although there is little mention of the levers of pressure that should allow Trump to convince Putin to stop.

It is clear to everyone that if the Ukrainians stopped defending themselves, this would be the end of Ukraine as an independent state, while Russia's withdrawal would allow the existence of the two opposing states, something Putin has no intention of conceding.

Portnikov therefore wonders ‘what might be the preconditions necessary to convince the Russian president to at least freeze the conflict, if not actually sign a comprehensive peace agreement’, pointing essentially to two.

The first concerns the uncertain conditions of the Russian economy, and the danger of internal social unrest, which might suggest at least a pause in the war operations to re-establish the necessary resources, accumulating new forces to resume the war at a later stage.

The second possibility, again linked to the pessimistic forecasts on the economy and also on the uncertain chances of a battlefield victory, would be a choice by Putin to obtain by political means the subjugation of Ukraine at least as a satellite state of Russia, avoiding wasting all resources in vain.

The fact is that it is not easy to assess Russia's economic condition, and experts are divided into various hypotheses, largely related to the continuation or postponement of military expenditures and actions, to foreseeable periods or indefinitely.

As the political scientist notes, ‘for us the important thing is not so much the state of the economy, but what Putin thinks about the state of the economy’.

That Moscow intends to continue with its customary methods, even bringing new technologies into play, is an indisputable fact, and the return to the scene of former vice-premier Jurij Bojko, leader of the pro-Russian opposition party in Ukraine Opzž (banned by law), who poured over TikTok new versions of the narrative about the ‘violation of the rights of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine’ by unspecified ‘radical forces’, does not appear accidental.

Bojko spoke the day after the unexpected triumph in the first round of the presidential elections in Romania of the pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu, highlighting the Kremlin's typical hybrid and information warfare strategies.

The level of penetration of social networks is different in Ukraine than in Romania, with people preferring to use more anonymous tools such as Telegram, but Russian propaganda nonetheless manages to influence, not only by bringing broader sectors of society to its side, but by insisting on the Ukrainians' sense of prostration after three years of war, which advises them to seek peace and “coexistence” with Russia in any way, with certain guarantees of security.

Portnikov comments that ‘basically this is also the line that allowed the pro-Russians in Georgia to impose themselves on the majority of the population’, insisting on the threat of a new conflict with Russia.

The hope of the Ukrainians is that the Western allies will not allow Putin to ‘politically swallow’ Ukraine, Portnikov concludes, and that Donald Trump himself will be able to counter the obsessive Russian propaganda, even more than providing the necessary armaments to resist on the ground, and to use his persuasive skills on the Kremlin dictator in this regard, if they really exist.

• Russia
• Ukraine
• war
• Putin
• Trump
• Portnikov