Iraqis to vote amid fears and fragile hopes for democracy
The election campaign ends tonight; tomorrow will be a day of reflection.
Disabled voters, prisoners in jail for minor offences, military personnel and members of Iraq’s security forces, altogether 617,000 voters, voted yesterday in 1,677 polling stations.
these elections are different from the 2005 parliamentary election. Both the electoral law and many political parties contending for power are new.
In 2005 the Iraqi Higher Election Commission (IHEC) had a full eight months to prepare the law; this time the Iraqi parliament just passed the new electoral law at the end of September, and it was not officially published until mid-October. Also the voter registration process had to be reopened twice, and ultimately the electoral commission decided to allow anyone over the age of 18 to vote, rather than just the 4.6 million voters who registered early.
Security arrangements will be massive to guarantee a successful election. Eyes will be on accidents, attacks and especially fraud at the moment of counting.
But the major difference from 2005 is the changed political atmosphere in the country.
Political parties appear less sectarian and ethnically-based. All of the country’s major groups are more involved in the process, starting with the Sunni population which had boycotted the last election.
These “polls could represent another, far more peaceful turning point,” said a report released by the International Crisis Group (ICG) on Tuesday, adding that sectarian conflict has now been put aside in favour of nationalism and good governance.
The Sunni establishment, having for the most part cast away its broad support for the insurgency with the formation of the Sahwa, or Awakening Councils, will be looking to cash in its compromises for a seat at the table.
The same is true for radical Shias linked to Moqtada al Sadr who has away from armed struggle in favour of politics.
According to the IHEC more than three quarters of the 400-plus registered parties and movements did not exist at the time of the 2005 elections.
Some of the new actors are pre-existing factions with reformulated coalitions or altered brand names. Most significantly, in contrast to the sectarian nature of the 2005 election, only 20 out of the more than 400 lists emphasize their Islamist character.
By far the most featured characteristic are variations on the word "independent," which is prominently featured in the names of 71 lists, and nationalist terms—variants on "Iraq" or "Iraqi"—which appear 69 times.
Party name branding and re-branding are a sign that Iraqis want an alternative to narrowly defined confessional parties that made it tough for the government to rule. However, many of the purportedly "nationalist" or "independent" alternatives are simply re-named Islamist parties that may eventually put up more obstacles on the road to democracy.
Voter dissatisfaction with the security situation and the economy will be another factor to take into account. Many parties have in fact had to retool their messages.
“Facing an electorate disillusioned by mismanagement and corruption, the ruling parties have been forced to adapt” and hoist “the banner of patriotism, clean politics, and effective service delivery,” the ICG report said.
Under the new election law, each provincial council will have 25 seats plus one additional seat per 200,000 people in the governorate.
Unlike 2005 this time voters will be able for the first time to choose either a party list or an individual candidate on a list. There will be a threshold for winning a seat. Votes for any party or individual failing to cross this threshold will be redistributed among the lists that did cross the threshold.
This system is thus likely to favour established lists with name recognition, disappointing segments of the electorate whose votes might be dispersed among many unsuccessful lists and candidates.
.png)
15/12/2004
23/10/2017 15:30
