Iran and international sanctions: 15 neighbours, no allies
The only Shiite country appears to be gearing up for international sanctions against its nuclear ambitions. Anti-western solidarity is on Iran's side and it is trying to play the third-world card by offering low oil prices and nuclear technology to poor countries. Its clash with the world has stalled economic development.
Teheran (AsiaNews) "Iran has 15 neighbours and no strategic ally". After four years in Iran, shortly before his departure, this is how a European ambassador summed up the situation of the country now preparing, on domestic and international fronts, to face international sanctions. According to the diplomat, the lack of strategic allies has always obliged the large 1000-year nation, the first Islamised people to resist Arabisation, to play chess (today it's often poker too), and to make simple tactical alliances.
Today, behind the "arrogant" powers (the US, the West), what Iran apparently fears most is first and foremost globalisation: the reality of having to expose oneself to universal competition and rules like those of the WTO or human rights standards. In the nuclear dispute, the Iranian regime finds it hard to accept international rules and seeks to gain prestige by making the country a "sanctuary" protected from external attacks and internal subversion. Up to a certain point, the government of Iran does not fear isolation; perhaps it hopes for it.
Very few Iranian newspapers have talked openly and concretely about the consequences of international sanctions. Iran would pay a very high price; it is already paying it. Who would still want to invest in the country or, if he is Iranian, to keep his capital there? Economic development is already practically stalled: there is nothing else but trade (or trafficking) to make money. And the trend would grow even if sanctions were imposed. Climbing oil prices are a blessing for the regime that must however renounce some of the manna: half the fuel consumed in Iran is imported because the country does not have sufficient refinement capacities. For the time being, this costs Iran only the price of funding consumers. But if one day, Iran would no longer be able to trade in oil, Iranians would suffer from penury!
This scenario does not really disturb "businessmen" and does not scare the fanatical sectors of the regime hoping for a new "glorious epoch". If the epoch turned into tragedy and chaos, this would only favour the onset of the Mahdi, the hidden Imam, Messiah of Shiism.
For the time being, the official line for the population consists of exalting scientific progresses made and the military defence capability of the country, as well as criticising the West for wanting to deprive Iran of technological development. Little has been said about European proposals of cooperation (economic, political and scientific), made six months ago, to be implemented if Iran stopped its nuclear programme. Now nothing at all is said about them. Only a minority of people, like the backers of the reformist Karrubi, seek to emphasise the cost of sanctions for Iran, trying to promote a sincere agreement with Russia actively but subtly rather than accepting the risk of confronting the rest of the world.
The whole world minus, for the time being, Iran's allies. These are not real "friends". Opposition to the USA or of the USA has created a temporary alliance with Syria, Cuba or Venezuela. Russia has its own position about Iran which, like its stand about Armenia, has a long history, but is not a strategic alliance. China wants above all to preserve the supply of hydrocarbon for the future and cooperates with Iran in a pragmatic if not cynical way. It invests in Iran, even modernising trains ferrying Shiite pilgrims from Tehran to the Mashad sanctuary. And it does not contest the fact that in Iran, Chinese who are not Muslims or Christians do not enjoy a legally recognised existence as human beings (they do not even enjoy burial rights; thanks to a loophole, they can bury their dead in the Protestant German cemetery).
"Bismillah al rahman " this is how exponents of the regime, and sometimes even the ambassador of Venezuela, usually start their speeches, by using the Arab words of the Koran that speak about a clement and merciful God. This is not about expressing one's faith, but of instilling confidence. Visible and pragmatic submission to the system. (More moderate Iranians only speak "in the name of God", using the Farsi "Be name Khoda"; and some who are near-dissidents may add, for example, and in the name of beauty and truth").
The excesses and misdeeds of the regime, since 1979, have reinforced anti-clericalism among the Iranian people: Islam is not a real factor of unity. Nor is it, for Iran, a means of enlightenment, as Khomeini had hoped it would be. It is not so and perhaps it will never be so, because an ecumenical movement, between a Sunni majority and a Shiite minority, appears largely impossible. Iran is the only "Shiite country": there are important Shiite communities in Lebanon and Iraq but today, for Iran, they appear to be useful above all in going to show how Tehran could become a polluting source in these two martyred countries.
In the political context of the Middle East, the most encouraging development for Iran was the electoral victory of Hamas in the occupied Palestinian territories. But Muslim Palestinians are not Shiites. Their hallmark is to be victims and enemies of Israel, and they are Arab
Not only from a cultural, but also from a religious point of view, ties between Iran and the Holy Land are rather subtle. For most Iranians, the holy Iraqi cities of Kerbala and Najaf and the Iranian ones of Mashad and Qom have more religious value than Jerusalem. So with Hamas, once again, it is a tactical alliance.
Some days ago, in rather able fashion, the Iranian government moved away from talking solely about Islam and decided to play the third world card, expressing two new ideas. The first was to create a fund to reduce the price of oil for poor countries alone: the rich West would have to pay more, even 0 a barrel. The other idea is the offer from Iran to disseminate nuclear technology for the benefit of poor countries, especially Islamic ones. The last proposal should be read as a provocation aimed at the West, somewhat like the first.
Words, words In a certain sense, Iran is taking the place vacated by Libya. But for the Iranian government, this rhetoric is also a way of preparing, morally and ideologically, for international sanctions, both on the domestic and international fronts.
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09/11/2006
05/06/2019 09:43
