12/03/2010, 00.00
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Industrial production: an increasingly two-speed Asia

Production in India and China growing fast, while that of Japan is stagnating. Conflicting data for Taiwan and South Korea Risk of reinforced regional division between fast and slower growing economies.

Hong Kong (AsiaNews / Agencies) –Manufacturing strengthened in China and India in November, exacerbating the gap between the two largest economies in Asia and the rest of the region. Experts speculate a division between the economies of rapid growth and others, like Japan, whose development is slow.

Data indicates that manufacturing output in China has expanded rapidly over the past 7 months. Now Beijing has taken measures such as the restriction on bank loans, in an attempt to fight inflation but which could also slow economic growth. However experts believe that industrial production will continue to grow for months.

The index of industrial production for China was 55.2 in November, a seven month record, compared to 54.8 in October. An index above 50 means an expansion of output, while a lower index represents a contraction.

The Indian economy is also growing and even accelerated in the July-September quarter, the annual growth rate rose to 8.9%. Orders for industrial products have steadily increased for four consecutive months. New Delhi is also struggling with high inflation, even if inferior to economic growth. The government is trying to attract foreign investment to drive further growth and particularly to realise infrastructure, while adopting measures to curb rising prices. The production index was 58.4 in November after October's 57.2.

However, production has been sliding in Japan for months now. Data released yesterday also suggest a permanent weakness in the economies of Taiwan and South Korea, although the two countries improved in October. For Seoul the index for production fell from a negative 46.7 in October to 50.2 in November, a trend which shows a strong recovery, driven by increased exports and greater public confidence leading to an increase in domestic consumption.

Similar data emerges from Taiwan, with the index at 51.7 in November after October's 48.6.

Experts wonder if this data is now structural, enough to suggest that the continent is forging ahead at two different speeds.
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