by Francis Khoo Thwe

2014-15 forecasts for Myanmar put growth at 8.5%, higher than all the countries in East Asia, including China. For the Asian Bank, the data will peak at 9.5% by 2030. Inflation must be kept under control, essential to promote infrastructure. But behind the facade of optimism there is a situation of violations of freedom, abuse and exploitation.

Yangon (AsiaNews) - In the recent report on East Asia, experts from the World Bank (WB) have predicted a growth rate of 8.5% for Myanmar in the 2014-2015 period, which outstrips all other nations in the area, including China. To date, the former Burma has had a growth rate of 6.3%, although many observers of international markets and economic experts had predicted an even greater growth. In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a growth rate of 7.5% for the fiscal year 2014, with a carefully controlled inflation; last month, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast even greater potential, with an estimate growth rate of 9.5% by 2030.

These optimistic predictions have strict conditions: the control of inflation, investment in infrastructure, which should be renovated or built from scratch; human capital development; keeping internal political instability under control particularly sectarian violence (Arakan Buddhists and Rohingya in the Rakhine State, in the west) and ethnic conflict (with minority Kachin, Karen, Mon, etc).

The main obstacle to economic growth for the IMF and ADB experts is the inflation risk, which could speed up to hit 6.6% in the period 2014/15; with a large majority of people still living in poverty and a rising cost of living given the increase in housing prices and basic necessities serious doubts remain that growth will translate into a real improvement of living conditions.

Former Burma ruled until 2010 by a strict military dictatorship, opened up its economy in the with the appointment of former General (reformist) Thein Sein as president, earning a reputation for being "the fastest expanding economy in Southeast Asia". The nation also has enormous potential in terms of natural resources, with a figure for the export of natural gas that amounts to $ 3.6 billion a year, equal to 40% of the total in the export.

However, the positive data and the optimistic long-term forecasts hide unsolved problems, destined to emerge, especially in the short term.

The sectors driving growth include tourism, as well as textiles and clothing, combined with enhanced trade with China and the increasing activity in the construction sector, especially in Yangon. An analyst for Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), adds that the data is overly optimistic and many doubts surrounding the target of 8.5%. "With 75% of citizens involved in agriculture - said Sean Turnell, an economist at Macquarie University, in Australia - the fall in commodity prices, a slowing global economy [...] I do not understand where they get this massive growth. "

Finally, human rights activists and associations urge people to look beyond the mere economic aspect and investigate the situations of violence, abuse and exploitation before investing in the country. Responding to the optimistic forecasts of the World Bank, the experts at Human Rights Watch (HRW) urge greater attention to the (unresolved) human rights issues. This alarm has been sounded for a long time even by the Catholic Church in Burma, which has stated that "religious freedom and peace between ethnic groups," is the real pre-condition for economic and social development in ten nation.

 

 

• myanmar
• world
• bank
• economic
• development
• human
• rights