Erdogan toys with Moscow and Kiev

Ankara has close relations with both sides of the conflict. The Turkish president seeks diplomatic success while the national economy suffocates The more conflicts arise in the former Soviet territories, the more Turkey benefits, relaunching its neo-Ottoman imperial plans.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - With the exception of Turkey, NATO countries, along with Japan and Australia, have strongly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The rest of the world, on the other hand, remains neutral, starting with China, India and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf.

Radio Svoboda analysts question whether it is economic interests or a natural affinity between the Sultan and the Tsar that keep Ankara in this condition of neutrality. The Turks have verbally condemned Putin's military action, but then they have been careful not to apply the sanctions decided by their own allies, continually offering themselves as mediators between Moscow and Kiev.

Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyp Erdogan and his Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu reiterated their conviction on the possibility of solving the crisis through diplomatic means.

According to Çavuşoğlu, "some NATO countries do not want peace, but only to weaken Russia, and they do not really care about Ukraine, otherwise they would accompany the withdrawal of Russian troops with the easing of the sanctions regime." He also added that Turkey has evacuated 17 thousand Turkish citizens from Ukrainian territory since the beginning of the war, to emphasize how effective Ankara's involvement in the region is.

The president's spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, explained that "we are entering a new phase of the Cold War, and we must prepare for all the consequences in the areas of production, energy, cyber security and many other issues."

The Turkish economy was already in crisis before the Russian war, also because of the coronavirus, and today it feels even more the consequences of the conflict; it is the worst period of the long reign of Sultan Erdogan. The country is shaken by political and social tensions, inflation has reached the highest levels of the last twenty years, unemployment is between 15 and 20%, prices of goods and services have risen between 30 and 50%, and next year there will be parliamentary elections, in which the ruling party is likely to lose a lot of support.

Moscow and Ankara have struck many wide-ranging deals in recent years, including the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant with Rosatom's participation, which will provide 10 percent of Turkey's energy consumption. It's a billion project, which Erdogan has said he wants to accomplish in every way. Not to mention Russian tourism, which will now pour more and more on the Turkish coast; only last year 4 and a half million tourists arrived, for which there are dedicated airlines for flights from Russia.

Ukraine is also an important partner of Turkey, with investments from 4.5 billion dollars last year; the last meeting between Erdogan and Zelenskyj dates back to February 3, just before the Russian invasion, to sign trade agreements from 10 billion. Ankara has been one of the main suppliers of weapons to Kiev for years, and in this war the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones have particularly distinguished themselves.

According to Russian political scientist Ivan Preobraženskij, "Erdogan is trying to make the most of this war, which is taking place on a territory that is very much linked in the past to Turkey, which could even claim some parts of it. In general, the more conflicts arise in the former Soviet territories, the more Turkey benefits from them, reviving its neo-Ottoman imperial plans and behaving as the leader of the entire southern Eurasian region, from the Black Sea to the Caucasus to Central Asia, based on the principle of divide and rule."

After the attempted military coup in 2016, Preobražensky recalls, Erdogan has concentrated all political and military power around him, and he intends to keep it as long as possible, thanks in part to the quarrels of neighboring countries.