Enthusiasm and controversy for the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia
Ankara (AsiaNews) –The decision of the two foreign ministers of Turkey and Armenia to formulate a protocol within six months that bring the respective States closer together has been applauded.
The protocol to be approved by both parliaments has four fundamental points: the restoration of diplomatic relations and opening of embassies, establishment of various historical committees to examine bilateral disputes first among them those relating to the massacres; re-discussion of the Kars accord (13 October 1921) which defines the boundaries between Turkey and Armenia; the reopening of borders and resumption of trade.
The move was months in the making, ever since last April there was talk of the road map, and now it seems that the two nations are determined to push ahead with reconciliation.
At first glance it seems - as strongly emphasized today by Turkish daily Yenicag, an MHP ultra-nationalist opposition party paper- that, after years of closure, unrest and resentment, it was the giant Turkey, under pressure from America and European Union, that "bow its head" and, with the blackmail of the Armenian President Sirkisyan, to kneel to the small and weak Armenia. Yet the Turkish foreign minister Davutoglu proudly claims that "it was a decision made by Ankara," in a clear and more precise effort by Turkey to find peaceable solutions with its neighbours. All this probably applies to the AKP’s global strategy, the current ruling party, who looks upon the Middle East and the Caucasus region as a great and inevitable economic resource, and is trying to emerge from its isolation by resolving long-standing historical conflicts which made Turkey the enemy of all its neighbouring states.
The fact remains that the Turkish prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan, finds himself faced with some tough decisions and will has a fine balancing act ahead of him in the complex geopolitical chessboard that is the Caucasus. To date, a resumption of relations between Ankara and Yerevan might break the delicate balance in the region. First of all, that with Azerbaijan.
“Borders will remain closed until the occupation ends” the Turkish premier assured during his recent visit to the Azerbaijani capital Baku on 13 May, stating that Turkey would not normalize its relations with Armenia unless the latter withdrew from the occupied Azerbaijani territories (Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas), thereby reassuring Azerbaijan at a very sensitive time for the agreement on the Nabucco pipeline project, and continuing in this way to ensure the delivery of 8 billion cubic meters of gas from the Azeri oil fields in the Caspian Sea.
On the other hand, companies that trade between Turkey and Armenia and Armenian tourism that is increasingly developing towards Turkey, are still hampered by the closed borders. The majority of goods and tourists are forced to pass through Georgia or Iran, to circumvent the closed border, with high transport costs and payment of bribes and customs. According to an estimate of the Armenian-Turkish Council for the development of trade relations (TABC), if the border between Turkey and Armenia were opened, the annual value of goods passing between the two countries would double up to 300 million dollars, with clear benefit to the Turkish banks.
Economic emergencies in Armenia
Armenia would also benefit economically: the global economic meltdown, has literally plunged the nation into an abyss. Its border with Azerbaijan is closed, with Turkey as well, Georgia has few resources, the only country that always helps is Iran, which now certainly is far from stable. The Soviet market, to which Armenia is still heavily bound to, has suffered a massive collapse to such an extent that the Armenian government has had to look to the west, not only by intensifying its ties with the European Union and the United States, but also to seek aid from its own ancestral enemy, Turkey.
So if, according to Turkish statistics institute Metropoll, 62.8% of Turks, especially those along the eastern border are not against open borders with Armenia, on the Armenian side the percentage certainly rises much more, arguing that one can not be intransigent when sugar, oil, pasta, rice, medicines, cigarettes and oil have in the space of a few months, risen from 10 to 30% , flour more than 50% and butter by 125%.
Armenian diaspora and nationalist Turks
For the most part opposition to diplomatic relations have come from the Armenian Diaspora, at least until the genocide against them is recognised. The Armenians who live in the smallest and most isolated country in the South Caucasus are more realistic and view the rapprochement between the two countries with hope as they face a very uncertain and increasingly worrying economic future.
Meanwhile, for the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh, there is an ongoing secret talks aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations and the reconciliation of the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Many Turkish politicians - including the Gray Wolves at the forefront of the ultra nationalist MHP, but also members of the AKP, the ruling party, including Justice Minister Cemil Cicek – have not stopped fanning the flames of controversy and continue to strongly oppose rapprochement with Yerevan, saying that the Erdogan government has sold out to America and Europe, forgetting that Armenians and Kurds are still enemies to fight.
One glimmer of peace has opened, but the battle is still raging, between national pride and economic woes. Now we await a green light.
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14/01/2021 13:34
