Earthquake: Ankara risks losing up to 1% of GDP
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development experts view this as a 'reasonable estimate'. Growth prospects also revised. Health authorities on alert for possible epidemics linked to lack of or contaminated water. Authorities continue online repression with arrests, censorships and closures of sites critical of the post-earthquake and building resilience.
Istanbul (AsiaNews) - The devastating earthquake on 6 February could cause very heavy repercussions for the Turkish economy, which is already in a difficult phase combined with high inflation, leading to losses of up to 1% of gross domestic product in 2023.
Providing the costs, not only in terms of human lives, of the worst natural disaster in the country's modern history is the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in a report published today.
The institute's experts add that this is a 'reasonable estimate' when compared to the expected increase in reconstruction efforts, which will offset the negative impact on infrastructure and supply chains.
"The earthquake," Bers chief economist Beata Javorcik tells Reuters, "largely affected agricultural areas and areas where there is light manufacturing, so the spillover to other sectors is limited.
However, the millions of displaced persons in need of humanitarian aid in Turkey and neighbouring Syria remain, along with the more than 41,000 dead, just as a large proportion of the survivors were left homeless in the middle of winter and freezing temperatures in the area.
The growth outlook for Ankara in 2023 was also revised down from 3.5 per cent to a more moderate 3 per cent without considering - for the time being - the impact of the earthquake in the estimates.
The bank added that growing external financing needs and the domestic political uncertainty associated with the 14 May 2023 elections - now in doubt, with controversy between pro-government and opposition over the postponement - create significant economic vulnerabilities. "As the depreciation of the Turkish lira since 2015 exceeds inflation, exports have grown rapidly benefiting from lower costs."
Meanwhile, Turkish health authorities are sounding the alarm about damage to health facilities and the risk of epidemics due to a lack of water or its contamination. In the town of Kahramanmaras, one of the hardest hit by the earthquake, a doctor at a clinic - the only one active and accommodating up to 10,000 patients a day - is dispensing free tetanus vaccinations to those who request them, as well as distributing hygiene kits since it is not possible to wash in the traditional way or have a shower.
The health alert is also shared by the experts of the World Health Organisation who, through the mouth of the WHO representative in Turkey Batyr Berdyklychev, urge to keep the alert high. There is, he says, an 'increased risk of water-borne diseases and outbreaks of communicable diseases', as well as seasonal flu and Covid among the displaced.
On the security front, finally, the police continue to hunt down and arrest those who - according to the official version of the authorities - create panic and fear among the population by sharing 'posts of a provocative nature' about the earthquake.
The latest estimate speaks of at least 78 arrests and increasing control of the network by Ankara, which aims to block any form of criticism that could undermine the image - and electoral consensus - of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The General Directorate of Security said it had identified 613 people accused of launching provocative messages and initiated legal proceedings against 293 of them. In addition to these, 46 websites were closed down for promoting scams and phishing, with the aim of diverting money intended for earthquake victims, and 15 social pages posing as official institutions.
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27/02/2023 11:46
09/02/2023 11:14
