by Wei Jingsheng

Governing through violence and using dictatorial means to deal with challenges have led to uprising in Africa and the Middle East. The next country will be China, where the government has trampled on the rule of law and lost the trust of the people. If they want to avoid a fall, Chinese rulers must start a process of democratic reform as soon as possible. Here is the analysis of the situation by a major Chinese dissident.

Washington (AsiaNews) – Last month, a small group of young Chinese on the Internet engaged in a little trick. They called Chinese to demonstrate in public by imitating the Jasmine Revolution in North Africa. There were no clear objectives, no slogans for action, and not even some preparation of public opinions in advance. It seemed to be an action that was not very serious. Yet, one stone caused thousands ripples, which resulted in all overreacting. Why was this?

Japan's huge earthquake caused a great nuclear crisis. There were threatening leaks from the nuclear power plant, and the situation is still developing. It may evolve into a big disaster similar to that of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. However, facing a major earthquake and nuclear threat, the Japanese society maintained a calm and orderly relief work. They did not panic; there was no chaos; they did not lose their confidence. Yet, the unexpected disaster happened and in China, within a few days, salt was all sold out in Chinese markets.

It is said that this is because eating iodine salt can prevent hazards from nuclear radiation. The nuclear radiation is in Japan and the Japanese have not panicked to the point of buying all the salt due to rumors.

Yet, why would the faraway Chinese be panic-stricken to the point of buying up all the salt? Why could one rumor put the whole of Chinese society in a state of anxiety? What kind of psychology is responsible for this? It stems from the people's distrust in the government. Historically, this is a common phenomenon that appeared many times at the end of a dynasty.

When a country's ruling clique loses the trust of the people, this kind of social psychology will appear. People do not know what to believe. The official authority is not trusted, so people rather trust rumors. More so, facts from many years in the past that prove the credibility of rumors are better than words from official authorities. One can obtain a lot of correct information from these so-called "rumors", while the official information from the Communist regime is often untrustworthy.

Communist officials tend to deceive the people. After selecting from two kinds of rumors for many years, the Chinese people have learned to believe the rumors from the people, instead of from the government. That is because in comparison, the rumors from the people lack deceptive motives. At least, they may be not quite accurate, while rumors from the Chinese government are full of motives for deception. To choose the lesser of two evils, believing the rumors from the people, is obviously a wiser choice.

Regardless of the rational concept of the Chinese Communist Party, it is already wrong from just viewing the method of the Communist ruling. More than two thousand years ago, Confucius already said, “Without trust, one cannot establish one's self.” This is true for the government as well. When a government lacks trustworthiness, it cannot establish itself to stand solid. However, the basic method of the Communist Party is to obtain and maintain its power by relying on its authoritarian means. It does not need to be reasonable, nor require trust. For the Communist Party, violence is a panacea. As the Communist leaders said in the often-claimed quote by Mao Zedong, “the regime comes out of the barrel of a gun.” This gun barrel is the basic theory and basic principle, which was derived from the same origin of Marx and Lenin, and carried on by Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

Another ancient Chinese maxim says, "Obtain the world by power, and rule the world by power." Credit and trust are irrelevant in their methods. "If I have power, I can cheat you any way I want, I can squeeze you any way I want, so what is the relevance if you believe me or not? All I need to do is to master the violent mechanism in my hand. I am a rogue, so fear me. If you do not, I will throw you to the ground and set my foot on your back." This is the way for the Chinese Communist Party to hold power, and it does not need people's trust, only obedience.

So without exception, the Communist regimes treat laws as optional. All they need are knives and pens. Pens are used to deceive the majority. For the minority who could not be deceived or are not willing to be deceived, knives are used. This kind of governing method is called dictatorship. The law in a dictatorship is just a tool in the hands of the rulers. They use laws in any way they like, and do not use it if they do not want to. Recently a spokesperson for the Communist regime accidentally gave away the truth. In a press conference, she scolded others, saying, “Do not use the law as a shield to excuse.” She even did not know that the law is a shield for everyone. When the law cannot be the shield for the people, where can they get a sense of security?

The essence of law is a credit. There is another way called a social contract. The basis of a contract is also credit. Politics is the work of managing the society, or say managing everyone. In Chinese, the political implication of the word "politics" is very clear, which is to use proper methods to administrate the society. The core of these proper methods is the law.

Officials cannot keep telling people everywhere what to do and what not to do all the time. In most cases, the law tells people what to do and not to do. So the law is the core of politics. The basis for the law to be effective is the people's trust, or the credit of the law. The main work for the government is to ensure the credit of law, and use the law to govern the society. When a government itself is breaking the credit of law, people are uncertain what to do. When this kind of destruction of the law accumulates to a certain degree, the governance of society begins to fail. People do not know whom to trust, and most people lose their sense of security. This is the main reason for social chaos.

The Chinese Communist Party has gradually lost the confidence of the people in the past 60 years. The Party and its officials take the lead in breaking the credit of law, and even arrogantly warn others not to take the law as an excuse. Thus, it produces this phenomenon of disturbance without sufficient reason. In ancient times, that would be an omen for the collapse of a dynasty. It is also true in modern days. The so-called Jasmine Revolution in the Mideast started from the "disturbance without sufficient reason" in Tunisia. A small event resulted in enough disturbance to turn rapidly into a revolution that then spilled into neighboring countries, thus forming an international wave of democratization. It happened because these governments lost their credit.

Recently, the phenomenon of "a disturbance without sufficient reason" has been happening more and more frequently in China. This is the omen for the collapse of Chinese Communist ruling. The root cause making people distrust the Communist government is precisely the basic way of the Communist rule—dictatorship. This kind of governing by relying on deception and repression is creating the conditions for the Jasmine Revolution in China. Even if one does not want it to happen, one can hardly stop it.

Exactly due to this realization, the Communist party's own behavior is like that of a frightened bird when it sees a bow and an arrow. Thus, a group of relatively wiser Communist officials represented by Wen Jiabao are continuously appealing for a democratic reform of the political system. What to reform? What needs to change is the basic governing way of the dictatorship. No matter what theory and objectives they might hold, the way of the dictatorship cannot be continued.

• china
• crisis
• implosion
• communist
• party
• human
• rights
• violations
• collapse