China’s economic recovery uncertain a year into the global crisis

China is the country where the recovery has been touted the most. Here economic growth is expected to reach around 8 per cent. Here on Saturday, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist with China’s National Bureau of Statistics, told a forum in Tianjin that the Chinese economy had bottomed out, picking up in the second quarter of this year.

For his part Chinese Finance Minister Xie Xuren, at a meeting of G20 finance leaders in London yesterday, said that the “series of measures adopted by the Chinese government to promote economic growth have already achieved clear results . . . and the economy is warming up and recovering”.

There have been signs of a rebound, with the country's purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures manufacturing activity, rising in August to a 16-month high of 55.1, from 52.8 in July. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector; a figure below indicates contraction.

In fact demand was strong, especially at home, Hong Kong-based economic Qu Hongbin said. And Li Kenong, vice-head of the General Administration of Customs, said that exports grew in August on a month-on-month basis. He declined to give specific figures. In his view China's exports will improve, but it is difficult to determine when it will reach pre-crisis levels.

But for other analysts the crisis is not over. Mainland exports fell in August from their year-earlier levels, albeit less than the 23 per cent drop in July.

Overall net exports, long a big source of growth for the world's third-largest economy, subtracted 2.9 percentage points from GDP growth in the first half of this year.

Government sources said that public investments added 6.2 percentage points to the GDP.

For many experts China’s economic recovery is due largely to public funding. They warn that recovery cold be followed by a drop in output and consumption.

According to official figures, only some of the tens of millions of the newly unemployed people have been rehired, improving slightly employment levels. 

However, because of the crisis salaries have been kept up with the rising price of basic necessities.

Li Zhongxia, a cleaner at a Beijing hotel, said that the price of a kilogram of rice was up 25 per cent; 4 yuan compared to 3.2 just two months ago. She noted that the rent of a 12-square-metre room in the suburbs for her family of three rose 29 per cent, to 450 yuan, all this on a salary of 1,200 yuan a month which, unlike the prices, has not changed.