Beijing tries to stop Kim Jong-il but save regime

There is a crisis in relations, because of pressure exerted by Beijing to avert further steps by Pyongyang: after the missile launches, it may be considering an atomic experiment. The train of the "dear leader" has ground to a halt at the border.

Seoul (AsiaNews) – Chinese diplomacy is working hard in its efforts to check the desperation and folly of the Pyongyang regime which, struck by an unprecedented economic crisis, has reacted with threats. And after its missile launches in July, an underground nuclear experiment is now feared.

Reconnaissance of American spy-satellites has revealed that since 6 September, the armoured train of Kim Jong-il has come to a halt near Shinuiju, the North Korean city on the border with China. It was not too difficult for the South Korean and Japanese security services to guess why: the special train is headed for Beijing.

A spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry was quick to tell foreign reporters that "for now, a visit of Kim Jong-il is not scheduled". This is talk to cover things up. Usually, Chinese government spokesmen confirm the visits of North Korean leaders after the latter have returned home. But two news items from a Chinese source confirmed suspicions: towards the end of August, Beijing invited Kim Jong-il to a top-level meeting and a delegation of North Korean military officials went to the capital to prepare for the visit of the "dear leader". And a government source from Seoul also spread news of the "invitation" in early September.

Ties between Beijing and Pyongyang have, to put it mildly, cracked since all the permanent members of the Council, including Russia and China, approved a resolution condemning the 15 July launch of seven missiles towards the Sea of Japan by North Korea, although the content of Japan's call – backed by the US – for sanctions was toned down.

Zhu Fen, professor of international policy at the University of Beijing, wrote: "The ballistic experiments of North Korea have thrown China in unprecedented embarrassing circumstances."

Chinese diplomacy had strongly exhorted its ally of the north not to proceed with missile launches but "Pyongyang does not listen to Beijing", as the Chinese Foreign Affairs spokesman told a journalist in Seoul. From here arises mutual irritation between the two countries. Recently the Chinese government allowed three North Korean fugitives to leave for the United States, something it had never done before. A few weeks ago, the Bank of China froze North Korea's accounts in its Macao branch, apparently on the suggestion of the United States that did the same last year. Pyongyang used to use the Macao banks to spread large quantities of counterfeit dollars and to recycle dirty money.

In a speech, pronounced or read, to members of the diplomatic corps in Pyongyang, the North Korean leader criticized China and Russia, saying there were no longer trustworthy allies and adding: "Our nation must defend itself alone."

China is faced with a dilemma: maintaining stability in both North Korea and the north-east Asia region. There is only one peaceful way of resolving the problem: convincing Pyongyang to return to the "six-party talks". And who can do it better than its perpetual ally, China?

But the armoured train has not yet crossed the Chinese border: if anything it appears to be retreating. A diplomatic move on the sidelines by the United States could explain the hesitation to proceed. On 5 September, Christopher Hills, Assistant Secretary of State and American negotiator at the six-party talks, went to Beijing for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wu Dawei. After the meeting, Hills said: "I must honestly say the Chinese are seriously trying to find a diplomatic solution but it seems they are meeting difficulties." To the American diplomat, the Chinese appeared frustrated and deluded in their longtime ally. On the other hand, China opposes the imposition of tough sanctions. According to the premier, Wen Jiabao, they would be counter-productive. Hills stayed in China for some days. Since Washington and Pyongyang have been immovably fixed in their respective positions for some months, Kim Jong-il is probably waiting to know the outcome of talks between the American representative and the Chinese authorities before taking a decision.

Now as never before, North Korea is facing a desperate economic situation. A week ago, Donald Rumsfeld said: "North Korea would sell anything to any nation or even to organizations" as long as it receives money. Alas, its preferred products for sale are ballistic missiles. According to a study by the American institute, Carnegie International Peace, over the last 30 years, Pyongyang has committed its technicians and industries in the construction of missiles, which it then sells to developing nations: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Pakistan were among its favourite clients. According to a study by the US government, the north made 560 million dollars from these sales. Since there is no international legislation banning the sale of missiles, the "proliferation" of North Korean ones came about in a quasi-pacific manner. But now the United States has devised indirect sanctions to block this lucrative trade by threatening to suspend economic aid to nations acquiring these arms.

When put in a desperate corner, the North Korean regime resorts to the risk of threat instead of accepting the offer of dialogue. This time, the risk is anything but calculated, because the object of the threat is very serious: an underground nuclear experiment. On 17 August, the ABC television network, going by information from the Pentagon, made the suspicion public. Some days later, Kim Seung-kyu, director of the South Korean National Intelligence Service, revealed that North Korea had the ability to realize an underground nuclear test. Further, according to the Russian agency, Itar-Tass, Kim Yong-chun, army chief in the north, in an invective against America, said "the situation in the Korean peninsula, where tension is growing as a result of the hostilities of the United States, proves that we have the right to procure a strong deterrent force", that is, effective nuclear arms. In early September, the American state department invited all members of the international community to clearly tell North Korea that nuclear experiments are "very provocative" and they will not have any impact other than to worsen its isolation.

One hopes that armoured train of the "dear leader" will now proceed towards the Chinese capital.

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