Beijing and Tokyo will not budge: Looming threat of open conflict
Tokyo (AsiaNews) - The diplomatic effort aimed at avoiding an open war for sovereignty over the Senkaku / Diaoyu seems to have failed. The Japanese government convoked Beijing's ambassador to Tokyo yesterday after a group of Chinese vessels sailed in disputed waters, for most of the day. Meanwhile, the Korean peninsula seems to be becoming a hotbed of conflict with Seoul warning that North Korea is "ready" for a new nuclear test.
The latest Chinese maritime provocation comes after months of actions - military and diplomatic - that have seen the two governments at loggerheads. The archipelago has a well-defined value: it is certainly important from a strategic point of view, and is expected to have a subsoil rich in natural energy resources. The proposal put forward by the government of Taiwan (also in the running for the claim) to "exploit" the resources "together" dropping the issue of sovereignty, was not accepted.
On 2 February, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - considered a "hawk" in foreign policy - visited Okinawa and declared his intention to defend the Land of the Rising Sun against all "provocations." A few days before, for the first time in a decade, his government had approved a significant increase in military spending. And today, the Secretary of the Japanese Cabinet Yoshihide Suga termed the Chinese actions "totally unacceptable: the Chinese ambassador was summoned to hear our protests."
According to several experts in eastern policies, the two governments are not genuinely seeking a peaceful solution to the problem. Although the issue of sovereignty actually exists since the end of World War II, Tokyo and Beijing remained silent on the issue until September 2012, when both declared mutual claims. The real reason seems to be the need to maintain - both in China and in Japan - nationalistic sentiment high to distract the population from the economic crisis and the transfer of power underway in Beijing.
Lanxin Xiang, a Professor of international politics at Geneva, writes in an article in the South China Morning Post that " China's diplomacy must be conducted by those with strategic vision, rather than the technocrats. The new communist leadership has to deal with the re-election of Barack Obama and the growth of tensions in the Pacific region: we need true professionals".
One of the most credible hypothesis argues that, in reality, the governments involved could agree to fight a quick war for the sovereignty of the islands. Economic theories indicate modern wars as "a good way to make money," and certainly the economic structures of Tokyo and especially in Beijing (a global hyper-producer) would benefit from the conflict.
But a war in the area could be triggered by another protagonist, the Korean peninsula. Seoul yesterday warned that a new nuclear test by Pyongyang regime is "imminent". According to the South Korean ambassador to the United Nations, Kim Sook, "there is a lot of activity, on the nuclear sites of the North, we are monitoring the situation." The UN Security Council approved a resolution in late January that increased sanctions against the government of the North, guilty of having conducted a missile test without international authorization.
Now, despite a hopeless domestic economic situation, Pyongyang is preparing a new war of provocation. Ambassador Kim has asked the UN for "firm and strong measures" in case of new nuclear tests, and the Security Council is waiting for China - the last great allies of North Korea - considered the only country able to exercise ' influence on the regime of Kim Jong-un.
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12/02/2016 15:14
24/08/2016 09:42
