Astana torn between Russia and China

In spite of distancing itself from the invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan continues to cooperate intensively with Moscow, but also intensifies agreements with Western countries. Today it is ‘closer than Europe’ for Russia, and at the same time ‘brings Europe closer to China’. And precisely the meeting of different worlds could be the great opportunity for the heirs of the nomads of Central Asia.

Astana (AsiaNews) - Vladimir Putin's visit to Astana, prior to the summit of heads of state of the members of the Csto Eurasian alliance, has revived the delicate issue of the geopolitical balance between Moscow and Beijing. This was the Russian President's fourth visit to Kazakhstan since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine, which Kazakh President Kasym-Žomart Tokaev had condemned several times in more or less explicit forms, and overall it is Putin's 35th visit to the main Central Asian country.

Russia and Kazakhstan continue to cooperate intensively and fruitfully within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, as Tokaev himself mentioned, and the trade balance between the two countries is constantly growing. On the other hand, Kazakhstan is increasing its oil exports in circumvention of Russia, and relations between the two are not without contradictions, which their leaders try not to highlight publicly.

After the invasion of Ukraine, many Russian politicians and propagandists had called for the ‘de-Nazification’ of Kazakhstan as well, due to its failure to respect the rights of the Russian-speaking part of the Kazakh population. Tokaev recently ordered to strengthen the defences of strategic military targets and civil infrastructure, especially after the Russian demonstration of the use of hypersonic missiles. The Astana parliament is currently discussing a draft law for the formation of ‘self-defence units’, volunteer corps to be integrated with the armed forces to make defensive warfare more effective.

The Kazakh political scientist Talgat Kaliev is convinced that ‘the intensity of relations between Russia and Kazakhstan can only increase’, considering the common economic interests and in various other areas, especially since Russia is increasingly under sanctions, and Kazakhstan is one of the few neighbours that is able to mediate with third countries, however much it tries in turn to avoid secondary sanctions and does not export materials to Russia for war purposes. Astana reiterates its support for a peaceful settlement of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, recognising Ukraine's territorial integrity within the borders established at the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, an official position similar to that of China.

Kaliev reiterates that in Kazakhstan ‘there is no discrimination of the Russian language and Russian-speaking population, it is a fantasy of propagandists’. For thirty years, after the end of the Soviet regime, the country has always maintained its ‘multi-vector’ foreign policy, and the recent turmoil should not cause it to deviate from this line, but rather make it even more effective, the political scientist reiterates. There are also many projects and investments with Western countries, with the US and the EU, both bilaterally and together with other Central Asian countries, and the big bet today is on the development of the Transcaspian Corridor, which will make China's trade with European markets easier.

However, Russian economist Dmitry Nekrasov emphasises the advantages that Russia can further gain from Kazakhstan, including in the military-industrial sector. In his opinion, ‘Astana has no interest in supporting Russia's war, but under the table it can still bring Moscow technologies that are now outdated and even date back to the Soviet period, but which would be very useful to Russia’. Although not at the level of a state agreement, many public and private trade channels remain open, and thousands of entrepreneurs are certainly involved in ‘parallel business’. Kazakhstan today is ‘closer than Europe’ for Russia, and at the same time ‘brings Europe closer to China’, and the meeting of different worlds could indeed be the great opportunity for the heirs of the Central Asian nomads.