Ankara traces a 'Turanian' axis, from the Caucasus to Central Asia
Contacts with former Soviet countries in the two regions to create the Transcaspian corridor. Turkish geopolitical interests clash with those of China. The possible mediation of Kazakhstan. The Turkmen remain wary: they do not want internal interference.
Moscow (AsiaNews) - Before paying an official visit to Kazakhstan, Turkey's President Recep Tayyp Erdogan received his Kyrgyz counterpart Sadyr Žaparov as part of the events of the 4th International Nomad Games in Iznik attended by all Central Asian countries. The Turkish leader also invited Turkmenistan to participate in the Transcaspian structural axis project, bringing together the former Soviet countries in the area.
As Turkish Foreign Minister Mevljut Cavusoglu assured, Ashgabat may soon become a full member of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), in which it currently only participates as an observer. The decision in this regard will be made on 11 November, at the Ost summit in Samarkand.
The Nomad Games were first organised in Kyrgyzstan in 2014 in Cholpon-Ate: athletes from 19 countries participated in 10 different types of competitions. Bishkek also promoted the next editions, in 2016 and 2018, on the Issyk-Kula shore. The initiative then passed into the hands of Turkey, which saw in this event an excellent opportunity to relaunch its role in the region, and gave the Games much greater prominence. Three thousand athletes from 102 countries from all over the world took part in this edition.
The next edition will be held in Kazakhstan, which is counting on Ankara's support to organise them, as the speaker of the Mazhilis (Astana's House of Parliament) Erlan Koshanov said, after a conversation with Erdogan himself in which Erdogan's trip to Kazakhstan was discussed. Erdogan is thus reciprocating Kazakh President Tokaev's visit last May, when they launched the Turkish-speaking 'Eurasian partnership', also to distinguish themselves from Russian belligerence.
This alliance takes on an even more pronounced significance after Astana made it clear that it does not intend to recognise the annexation of the territories occupied in Ukraine by Moscow, and such also appears to be Turkey's official position. As Cavusoglu reiterated: 'The occupied lands belong to Ukraine; Turkey has not even recognised the annexation of Crimea, and we do not intend to recognise the referendums held on Ukrainian territory'.
Russian historian Aleksandr Knjazev, of the Moscow Institute of International Research, believes that Kazakhstan is at a crossroads: 'Astana is trying to maintain its multi-vector position in foreign policy, but its possibilities to do so are narrowing. Turkey is a channel for the realisation of many projects, but it is rather narrow and perhaps not decisive enough,' he explained in an interview with Nezavisimaja Gazeta.
The Transcaspian axis is of special importance in this context, because on this route Turkey's interests intersect with those of China. Merchant transport routes are the same, even though the supply of energy resources has opposite directions, between Asian and European interests, and here Kazakhstan's mediation could play a major role.
Turkey would remain the main transport hub, China would have access to new channels to the West, thanks to Astana's look east and west. There is great uncertainty over the Caucasian corridor of Zangezur, still affected by the unresolved hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which Turkey seeks to help resolve as soon as possible.
Kyrgyzstan is also under very interested Turkish observation, as witnessed by their joint participation in the Nomads' Games, which, according to Zhaparov, are of primary importance for 'the world-wide ethno-sport and ethno-cultural movement, an achievement of human civilisation'. That is why the talks with Erdogan were 'very intense', as the press office in Bishkek assures, although Ankara did not comment on this.
Central Asian presidents, after all, also make calculations dictated by the search for internal consensus. Tokaev is preparing for the challenge, a momentous turning point for him, of next month's presidential elections, while Zhaparov has to reckon with accusations of weakness and corruption from internal opposition, linked in recent days to manoeuvres around the Kumtor gold mine.
Even the optimistic predictions of Turkmenistan's accession to the Ost have been repeated for years, but Ashgabat's mistrust of possible interference within it remains very strong. Even the new president Serdar Berdymuhamedov, like his predecessor, seems to prefer a 'hands-off' policy towards his enterprising neighbours. Turkey still has a lot of work to do to realise its neo-Ottoman dream of Eurasian domination.
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12/12/2023 09:24
