Academics warn that social unrest could pose threat to economy
Hong Kong (AsiaNews/SCMP) - Social unrest is likely to disrupt the mainland's vibrant economy in the next few years, a survey of prominent academics has found.
In addition to corruption, poverty and unemployment, fragile financial systems and environmental hazards are among the main contributing risk factors, say scholars interviewed by the Institute of Political Development and Governance at Peking University.
More than 66 per cent of the 98 scholars polled predicted that from now to 2010 there would be plenty of potential for outbreaks of social unrest. The poll participants were 75 academics from non-political research institutions and 23 from government think-tanks. Their expertise covered fields from economics, social affairs, international relations and public health to environmental protection and public policy.
Corruption was singled out in the survey as the most likely cause of social upheaval.
It was "highly possible" corruption would trigger unrest, the poll said. "Its risk factor is seen to be enhanced when combined with other major problems like rising unemployment and poverty," the survey's report said.
For many China watchers, income disparity is also a big concern. The gap between urban and rural residents' incomes began to widen from around 1997 and, if adjusted with currency factors, it is the biggest gap in the world, according to a study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
In 2002, the per-capita income of urban residents was more than three times that of the rural population and the gap has remained wide in the past two years, despite government efforts to increase peasants' incomes. Educated peasants who had become aware of their own interests and held a burning desire to change the status quo would be the "driving force" for a potential social crisis, said survey director Ding Yuanzu in the China Youth Daily.
It would be detrimental if the majority of society could not benefit from economic growth, he said. China has remained the world's fastest-growing economy for about 10 years, but the number of people in poverty rose by 800,000 last year, according to recent official data.
The stellar economic performance for the past decade did not necessarily translate into promising prospects, said Peng Zongchao , a public policy professor at Tsinghua University.
Social problems threatening the country's economic development had emerged and the increasing urban-rural inequality was among the most serious concerns, Professor Peng said. "A functioning economic system is vital for a healthy society, but economic indicators like gross domestic product should not become the single goal the government is trying to pursue," he said.
It would put the country in a precarious situation if officials were unaware of other government priorities such as facilitating a system of justice where all citizens could have access to social and economic resources, said Professor Peng.
A good sign was the period after the Sars outbreak last year where more government officials realised the importance of "a well-balanced society", he said.
"There's a considerable change of mentality in terms of how this country should be developed," the professor said.
But the desire to maximise GDP at all costs was so ingrained in governments at all levels that social and cultural issues would be sidelined, the survey report said.
"This GDP worship could well explain the recent overheating of the Chinese economy," Mr Ding said in the China Youth Daily interview.
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