A Seattle University study has estimated that in 2010 the victims of the disease numbered about 47% more than shown by the data published by the World Health Organization. Funded by Bill Gates, the new study is based on statistical models that also takes into account deaths that previously were not attributed to malaria.

London (AsiaNews/Agencies) - A British study published in the scientific British journal Lancet says that deaths from malaria are twice those declared by the World Health Organization. According to the study, there were approximately 1.24 million victims of the disease in 2010, 47% more than the official estimate of the WHO, showing 655,000 deaths. The research was conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington (Seattle) and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, a benefit organization created in 1994 by the founder of Microsoft.

The researchers calculated the new estimates with statistical models reconstructing the course of the disease between 1980 and 2010. The data show that 995,000 died in 1980 and also show a peak of 1.82 million deaths in 2004, due to increasing population in areas of the world where the disease is most prevalent. In recent years, instead, there has been a drop in deaths, caused, according to the study, by a renewed commitment on the part of international and humanitarian organizations to preventing and eradicating the disease, especially in Africa, South America and parts of Asia.

Malaria is caused by parasites, protozoa belonging to the genus Plasmodium, which cause high fever with different types of complications that can lead to death. The major route of infection is the Anopheles mosquito, very common in swampy areas. Due to its particular characteristics, the disease is very difficult to treat and to date there is no vaccine, only medical prophylaxis. Prevention techniques aim at reducing insect populations in highly populated areas.

Those most at risk are children younger than 5 years, but research has also uncovered disturbing data on the number of deaths in the adult population in areas where malaria is present. According to traditional medicine, people who have survived the infection as children have little chance of contracting the disease as adults. However, researchers at the University of Seattle have estimated that in Africa alone there are about 433,000 victims, compared to WHO estimates for 2010.

In Asia, countries that have partially eradicated the disease are China, Japan, Philippines and Sri Lanka. To date, the majority of deaths on the continent occur in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Indochina.

Christopher Murray, one of the authors of the study, explains that recognizing the disease in an adult is very difficult and often requires an autopsy of the corpse to determine the cause of death. "For the new estimate", he says, "we analyzed hospital data, death certificates and other types of research on patients that have died from malaria." With this data, researchers sustain that it will take more time and more funds to eradicate the disease.

Detractors of the new research point out that the study is based on estimates and statistical predictions, because there is no reliable data on many areas of the world where malaria is particularly prevalent. Richard Cibulskis, strategic coordinator of the overall program of the World Health Organization for the prevention of malaria, minimizes the conflict between the data published by the University of Seattle and the WHO. He points out that if the calculations are done with the indicators used by the WHO, the two estimates do not differ much. The only exception is Africa, but at present there is insufficient data to certify the deaths from malaria in adults.

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